#prediction-markets

#prediction-markets

Trump Media & Technology Group (TMTG), the parent company of Truth Social, has announced a groundbreaking partnership with Crypto.com | Derivatives North America (CDNA) to launch the first-ever prediction markets embedded within a social media platform. The collaboration will enable Truth Social's users to trade event-based contracts - from elections and interest rate changes to sports outcomes and commodity prices - under the brand "Truth Predict."

Shayne Coplan, 27, is always in a hurry. Last year, he arrived at a Manhattan dinner hosted by a venture capital firm for networking, dressed in jeans and a leather jacket. He had been invited as one of the most promising entrepreneurs of the moment, but after a brief chat, he got up while the main course was being served and left for a concert in Brooklyn. At this pace, Coplan has become the world's youngest self-made billionaire.

"It was not Zohran Mamdani's debate performance. It was Curtis Sliwa's statement after the debate that he is not leaving that has tipped the odds to 90% for Mamdani," Ackman wrote on X.

Republicans are in disbelief. Jerrauld "Jay" Jones, the Democratic candidate for Virginia attorney general in this year's elections, has yet to drop out of the race despite nauseous texts that reveal he once fantasized about gunning down then-Speaker of the Virginia House Todd Gilbert, a Republican. But, laying aside decency and decorum, why exactly should Jones drop out of the race?

* Judge considering sanctioning DOJ lawyers over repeated statements compromising fairness of Mangione trial. [ NY Times] * Roberta Kaplan representing Disney shareholders seeking discovery to determine if Kimmel suspension demonstrates a breach of fiduciary duties. [ Semafor] * Group challenging SEC gag rule, which prevents parties who voluntarily settle enforcement cases from turning around and telling the market they did nothing wrong, seeks en banc review from the Ninth Circuit. But, you know, you don't have to settle. [ Law.com]

Tremor tracks volatility on Polymarket , a prediction market that lets traders bet on the outcome of future events. The goal of Saravanan's new tool: Spot sudden swings and identify potentially valuable situations where insiders may know more than the general population. "If the chance of a ceasefire in a war jumps from 50% to 80%, but there's no news, it's likely someone with inside info is acting on Polymarket," Saravanan told me.

"Prediction markets remind me of crypto 15 years ago: a new asset class on a path to trillions," Matt Huang, co-founder and managing partner at Paradigm, told TechCrunch in an emailed statement. "There's no better team than Kalshi to scale prediction markets and reshape how people think about everything from elections and economic markets to weather and sports."