#prediction-markets

#prediction-markets

“Let's bet on America - not against it,” he said. “I'm proposing a 10% fee on prediction markets and online gambling to fund an American Innovation Fund - investing in AI, quantum computing, fusion energy, life sciences, and national security tech.”

On Polymarket, users have now invested about $3 million betting on whether there will be a Hantavirus outbreak this year. About $170,000 has been similarly wagered on Kalshi, as of late Friday afternoon. Both bets are set up to be resolved by the end of 2026, so there's plenty of time for both pools to grow.

Kalshi announced on Thursday a $1 billion Series F round, valuing the company at $22 billion. That's double the $11 billion valuation Kalshi nabbed just five months ago after raising a $1 billion Series E. This latest round was led by Coatue, with participation from Sequoia, Andreessen Horowitz, and Paradigm.

Coinbase argues that prediction markets, while appearing novel, are well within the existing statutory authority of the CFTC, meaning no new mandate is required for regulation.

The CME Fedwatch Tool shows a 99% probability that the U.S. Federal Reserve will keep its target rate at 350 to 375 basis points when it meets this week on April 29.

"Our men and women in uniform are trusted with classified information in order to accomplish their mission as safely and effectively as possible, and are prohibited from using this highly sensitive information for personal financial gain."

Pritzker's office stated that the new order strengthens protections against insider trading in response to emerging risks tied to the rapid growth of event-based gambling.