#prediction-markets

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#donald-trump

Live Election Polls: Here Are the Most Accurate Trump vs. Harris Predictions | amNewYork

Prediction markets are seen as more accurate than traditional polls for tracking the 2024 presidential election dynamics.

Who is winning the election right now? How to bet on the presidential election | amNewYork

Prediction markets indicate Donald Trump is leading in the election with a 60% probability of winning.

U.S. Election Betting: Polymarket 'Manipulation' Claims Miss the Mark

Mainstream media speculation about manipulated Trump odds on Polymarket lacks evidence, according to experts in prediction markets.

Presidential betting odds: Get $20 in bonus bets with Kalshi | amNewYork

Dramatic shifts in presidential election odds reflect changing voter sentiment as Election Day approaches.
Prediction markets are drawing unprecedented volumes, indicating strong public engagement and financial interest.

Polymarket users who bet on the presidential election might not see pay day until the inauguration

Polymarket warns users that election resolution could take until inauguration day, highlighting uncertainty in prediction markets.

Odds of a Trump Victory Soar Past 60% on Betting Markets - What are Pollsters Missing?

Donald Trump leads Kamala Harris in prediction markets for the upcoming U.S. Presidential Election with odds heavily favoring his victory.

Live Election Polls: Here Are the Most Accurate Trump vs. Harris Predictions | amNewYork

Prediction markets are seen as more accurate than traditional polls for tracking the 2024 presidential election dynamics.

Who is winning the election right now? How to bet on the presidential election | amNewYork

Prediction markets indicate Donald Trump is leading in the election with a 60% probability of winning.

U.S. Election Betting: Polymarket 'Manipulation' Claims Miss the Mark

Mainstream media speculation about manipulated Trump odds on Polymarket lacks evidence, according to experts in prediction markets.

Presidential betting odds: Get $20 in bonus bets with Kalshi | amNewYork

Dramatic shifts in presidential election odds reflect changing voter sentiment as Election Day approaches.
Prediction markets are drawing unprecedented volumes, indicating strong public engagement and financial interest.

Polymarket users who bet on the presidential election might not see pay day until the inauguration

Polymarket warns users that election resolution could take until inauguration day, highlighting uncertainty in prediction markets.

Odds of a Trump Victory Soar Past 60% on Betting Markets - What are Pollsters Missing?

Donald Trump leads Kamala Harris in prediction markets for the upcoming U.S. Presidential Election with odds heavily favoring his victory.
moredonald-trump
#political-betting
from Fortune
4 hours ago
Miscellaneous

Polymarket users have wagered $3.2 billion on the outcome of the election-and the majority of bets are on Trump winning

The 2024 election featured unprecedented developments, including a sitting President being ousted by his own party and the rise of prediction markets for election betting.

Why prediction markets swung heavily against Trump as the election neared

Prediction markets reveal volatility in betting odds for political candidates, complicating their ability to predict outcomes accurately.

No, Polymarket Whales Aren't Evidence of Prediction Market Manipulation

Trump's odds have surged in prediction markets, indicating possible genuine support rather than manipulation.

Can Prediction Market Boom Continue After Election? This Crypto Team Has a Plan

The future of prediction markets may face challenges after the 2024 elections due to dwindling interest and liquidity.
Hedgehog Markets aims to create more sustainable prediction markets by focusing on less liquid but potentially enduring events.

Polymarket users have wagered $3.2 billion on the outcome of the election-and the majority of bets are on Trump winning

The 2024 election featured unprecedented developments, including a sitting President being ousted by his own party and the rise of prediction markets for election betting.

Why prediction markets swung heavily against Trump as the election neared

Prediction markets reveal volatility in betting odds for political candidates, complicating their ability to predict outcomes accurately.

No, Polymarket Whales Aren't Evidence of Prediction Market Manipulation

Trump's odds have surged in prediction markets, indicating possible genuine support rather than manipulation.

Can Prediction Market Boom Continue After Election? This Crypto Team Has a Plan

The future of prediction markets may face challenges after the 2024 elections due to dwindling interest and liquidity.
Hedgehog Markets aims to create more sustainable prediction markets by focusing on less liquid but potentially enduring events.
morepolitical-betting
#election-betting

Trump leads Harris on Robinhood's new prediction market with 100 million contracts traded

Robinhood's new election betting platform has gained immense popularity, trading over 100 million contracts in its first week.

Election Crypto Betting: Best Sites & Apps 2024 | amNewYork

Kalshi has become a leading regulated platform for election crypto betting, now accepting deposits in cryptocurrency.

Can You Bet on the Presidential Race? Here's How To Get Started | amNewYork

Kalshi offers a secure platform for U.S. citizens to legally bet on the presidential race following a recent regulatory change.

The Giant Asterisk on Election Betting

Election betting is gaining traction as a significant factor in predicting political outcomes.

The Election Betting Markets Are All About Vibes, Too

Election betting has become mainstream in the 2024 campaign, showing a significant increase in total bet volume compared to 2020.

2024 Betting Market Shifted to Trump by Just Four People Dumping in $30 Million

Trump's betting odds surged due to $30 million from four accounts, raising concerns of market manipulation despite close polling with Harris.

Trump leads Harris on Robinhood's new prediction market with 100 million contracts traded

Robinhood's new election betting platform has gained immense popularity, trading over 100 million contracts in its first week.

Election Crypto Betting: Best Sites & Apps 2024 | amNewYork

Kalshi has become a leading regulated platform for election crypto betting, now accepting deposits in cryptocurrency.

Can You Bet on the Presidential Race? Here's How To Get Started | amNewYork

Kalshi offers a secure platform for U.S. citizens to legally bet on the presidential race following a recent regulatory change.

The Giant Asterisk on Election Betting

Election betting is gaining traction as a significant factor in predicting political outcomes.

The Election Betting Markets Are All About Vibes, Too

Election betting has become mainstream in the 2024 campaign, showing a significant increase in total bet volume compared to 2020.

2024 Betting Market Shifted to Trump by Just Four People Dumping in $30 Million

Trump's betting odds surged due to $30 million from four accounts, raising concerns of market manipulation despite close polling with Harris.
moreelection-betting
#us-presidential-election

The 'Trump Trade' Crypto Narrative is Overblown

Bitcoin's recent surge may not be directly connected to Trump's election odds as the correlation analysis shows almost no relationship.

If U.S. Election Is Disputed, Prediction Markets Could Face 'Hornet's Nest'

Prediction markets face challenges in accurately predicting election outcomes amidst potential disputes and heightened political tension.

The polls say the presidential election is a dead heat. But online bettors are leaning to Trump. Who's right?

Prediction markets show a shift in momentum towards Trump, despite polls showing a close race with Harris.

Prediction Markets Are Pricing In A Trump Victory. This Is Good For Bitcoin

Prediction markets reflect financial motivations, not political loyalty.
Traders analyze odds and data, showing diverse motivations in betting behavior.

The 'Trump Trade' Crypto Narrative is Overblown

Bitcoin's recent surge may not be directly connected to Trump's election odds as the correlation analysis shows almost no relationship.

If U.S. Election Is Disputed, Prediction Markets Could Face 'Hornet's Nest'

Prediction markets face challenges in accurately predicting election outcomes amidst potential disputes and heightened political tension.

The polls say the presidential election is a dead heat. But online bettors are leaning to Trump. Who's right?

Prediction markets show a shift in momentum towards Trump, despite polls showing a close race with Harris.

Prediction Markets Are Pricing In A Trump Victory. This Is Good For Bitcoin

Prediction markets reflect financial motivations, not political loyalty.
Traders analyze odds and data, showing diverse motivations in betting behavior.
moreus-presidential-election
#kalshi

How to Bet on Polymarket in the US | amNewYork

US-based customers cannot use Polymarket for betting; Kalshi offers a legal alternative for election and other betting.

Prediction Market Kalshi to Supply Price Data for Crypto Oracle Stork

Kalshi partners with Stork to enhance crypto applications using prediction market data.
The collaboration aims to develop perpetual futures contracts on real-world event probabilities.

Activist Group Says Kalshi's Election Market Should Be Shut Due to 'Manipulative' Whales

Kalshi's battle to offer political betting is challenged by concerns over election integrity and market manipulation, contrasting its regulated platform with Polymarket's unregulated environment.

U.S. Election Betting: Kalshi's Polymarket Rival Quickly Gets Traction

Kalshi's election prediction market volume suggests strong interest, despite a late launch.

U.S. Election Betting: Federal Court 'Erred' in Letting Kalshi Launch Prediction Markets, CFTC Says

A federal judge's ruling allows Kalshi to list election betting contracts, prompting the CFTC to appeal based on concerns of improper regulatory oversight.

U.S. Election Betting: Regulated Presidential Markets Are Live, and Tiny Compared to Polymarket's

Two new U.S. prediction markets for the presidential election launched, allowing bets on election outcomes.

How to Bet on Polymarket in the US | amNewYork

US-based customers cannot use Polymarket for betting; Kalshi offers a legal alternative for election and other betting.

Prediction Market Kalshi to Supply Price Data for Crypto Oracle Stork

Kalshi partners with Stork to enhance crypto applications using prediction market data.
The collaboration aims to develop perpetual futures contracts on real-world event probabilities.

Activist Group Says Kalshi's Election Market Should Be Shut Due to 'Manipulative' Whales

Kalshi's battle to offer political betting is challenged by concerns over election integrity and market manipulation, contrasting its regulated platform with Polymarket's unregulated environment.

U.S. Election Betting: Kalshi's Polymarket Rival Quickly Gets Traction

Kalshi's election prediction market volume suggests strong interest, despite a late launch.

U.S. Election Betting: Federal Court 'Erred' in Letting Kalshi Launch Prediction Markets, CFTC Says

A federal judge's ruling allows Kalshi to list election betting contracts, prompting the CFTC to appeal based on concerns of improper regulatory oversight.

U.S. Election Betting: Regulated Presidential Markets Are Live, and Tiny Compared to Polymarket's

Two new U.S. prediction markets for the presidential election launched, allowing bets on election outcomes.
morekalshi

Billionaire Game Theory + We Are Not Ready for A.G.I. + Election Betting Markets Get Weird

Tech billionaires are cautious about political endorsements, speculating on a possible Trump comeback.
The readiness for superintelligence is critical in AI development, highlighting ethical challenges.
Prediction markets like Polymarket may influence political outcomes amidst uncertainty.

Betting Markets Favor Trump. But Their Record of Accuracy Is Mixed.

Polls and prediction markets show differing predictions for election outcomes, creating an ongoing debate about their accuracy and reliability.
#election-predictions

Can We Really Predict the Presidential Election?

The wisdom-of-the-crowd effect could improve the accuracy of predicting elections over traditional polling methods.

Polymarket bets tilt toward a Trump victory-but how accurate are they?

Polymarket offers a novel approach to election predictions, but its limited liquidity raises concerns over reliability compared to traditional polling.

Trump and Biden Tied on Polymarket, Diverging From Polls

Prediction markets show 45% chance for both Trump and Biden to win the U.S. presidency, differing from polls.

Can We Really Predict the Presidential Election?

The wisdom-of-the-crowd effect could improve the accuracy of predicting elections over traditional polling methods.

Polymarket bets tilt toward a Trump victory-but how accurate are they?

Polymarket offers a novel approach to election predictions, but its limited liquidity raises concerns over reliability compared to traditional polling.

Trump and Biden Tied on Polymarket, Diverging From Polls

Prediction markets show 45% chance for both Trump and Biden to win the U.S. presidency, differing from polls.
moreelection-predictions
#political-forecasting

Don't Bet on the Financial Scam of Easily Manipulated Political Prediction Markets

Prediction markets are unreliable indicators for political forecasting due to thin trading volume and speculative motivations.

Prediction markets post-Biden: Trump's chances down slightly, but Harris' odds jump to 40%

Prediction markets favor Trump post-Biden withdrawal.
Polymarket proves as reliable forecaster of political events.
Significant prediction swings related to Harris stepping into the spotlight.

Don't Bet on the Financial Scam of Easily Manipulated Political Prediction Markets

Prediction markets are unreliable indicators for political forecasting due to thin trading volume and speculative motivations.

Prediction markets post-Biden: Trump's chances down slightly, but Harris' odds jump to 40%

Prediction markets favor Trump post-Biden withdrawal.
Polymarket proves as reliable forecaster of political events.
Significant prediction swings related to Harris stepping into the spotlight.
morepolitical-forecasting
#2024-election

A handful of pro-Trump bettors have dumped more than $25 million into Polymarket, swaying election odds in his favor

Prediction markets, particularly Polymarket, suggest former President Trump has a strong advantage in the upcoming election compared to traditional polls.

Trump's Lead Over Harris Widens on Polymarket's Prediction Market

Trump's odds of winning the election are at a recent high, indicating increased trader confidence.

A handful of pro-Trump bettors have dumped more than $25 million into Polymarket, swaying election odds in his favor

Prediction markets, particularly Polymarket, suggest former President Trump has a strong advantage in the upcoming election compared to traditional polls.

Trump's Lead Over Harris Widens on Polymarket's Prediction Market

Trump's odds of winning the election are at a recent high, indicating increased trader confidence.
more2024-election
#cryptocurrency

Donald Trump gains the upper hand in the prediction markets-an indicator more accurate than polls, expert claims

Prediction markets may provide more accurate insights into election outcomes than traditional polls.

Polymarket Reportedly Seeks $50M in Funding, Mulls Token as Election Bets Surge

Polymarket may issue a token to facilitate real-world event validations in prediction markets.

A New Prediction Market Raises $3M in Pre-Seed Round Led by 1confirmation

Limitless Network raised $3 million to create a prediction market focusing on quick expiration events like daily stock prices.

DYdX to Debut Perpetual Futures on Prediction Markets as DEX Seeks to Raise Profile

dYdX plans to launch perpetual futures on prediction markets to help DeFi regain attention and distinguish itself from centralized exchanges.

Trump-Harris Debate: Polymarket Shows Slim Odds of Crypto Mention

Cryptocurrency is increasingly relevant in political discussions, evidenced by its potential mention in presidential debates.

Kamala Harris Pulls Well Ahead of Trump on Polymarket

Prediction markets show Harris leading on Polymarket. Trump's interview with Musk may involve MAGA and crypto. Kalshi bettors predict slim chance for OpenAI's Sora before 2025.

Donald Trump gains the upper hand in the prediction markets-an indicator more accurate than polls, expert claims

Prediction markets may provide more accurate insights into election outcomes than traditional polls.

Polymarket Reportedly Seeks $50M in Funding, Mulls Token as Election Bets Surge

Polymarket may issue a token to facilitate real-world event validations in prediction markets.

A New Prediction Market Raises $3M in Pre-Seed Round Led by 1confirmation

Limitless Network raised $3 million to create a prediction market focusing on quick expiration events like daily stock prices.

DYdX to Debut Perpetual Futures on Prediction Markets as DEX Seeks to Raise Profile

dYdX plans to launch perpetual futures on prediction markets to help DeFi regain attention and distinguish itself from centralized exchanges.

Trump-Harris Debate: Polymarket Shows Slim Odds of Crypto Mention

Cryptocurrency is increasingly relevant in political discussions, evidenced by its potential mention in presidential debates.

Kamala Harris Pulls Well Ahead of Trump on Polymarket

Prediction markets show Harris leading on Polymarket. Trump's interview with Musk may involve MAGA and crypto. Kalshi bettors predict slim chance for OpenAI's Sora before 2025.
morecryptocurrency

Predict the next unicorn? Insights from "superforecaster" VCs can help. Here's how

Human intuition remains unparalleled in predicting future outcomes, especially in venture capital.

Cypherpunks Write Code: Jim Bell & Assassination Politics | HackerNoon

Jim Bell's 'Assassination Politics' introduces a controversial concept of using prediction markets for targeting government officials, reflecting radical anarcho-libertarian ideologies.
#market-trends

Trump Inches Closer to Harris on Polymarket as Betting Passes $1 Billion

Harris is leading in prediction markets for swing states, while skepticism looms over Bitcoin's rally and doubts exist about 'Black Myth: Wukong' winning awards.

Could Prediction Markets Offer Better Odds at Who Wins the US Elections? | HackerNoon

Most users engage with prediction markets for observation rather than trading.
Understanding user behavior is essential for refining product development and marketing strategies.

Trump Inches Closer to Harris on Polymarket as Betting Passes $1 Billion

Harris is leading in prediction markets for swing states, while skepticism looms over Bitcoin's rally and doubts exist about 'Black Myth: Wukong' winning awards.

Could Prediction Markets Offer Better Odds at Who Wins the US Elections? | HackerNoon

Most users engage with prediction markets for observation rather than trading.
Understanding user behavior is essential for refining product development and marketing strategies.
moremarket-trends

Caroline Ellison Most Likely Won't Serve Time, Polymarket Traders Bet

Caroline Ellison may avoid prison due to cooperation with prosecutors, according to prediction markets.
Traders remain skeptical about Qualcomm's bid for Intel succeeding.

Limitless Labs Secures $3M Funding from 1confirmation to Revolutionize Prediction Markets | HackerNoon

Limitless Labs raised $3 million to enhance a fast-growing prediction marketplace with a focus on delivering innovative features and expanding user engagement.

All the signs Trump lost the debate

Trump's premature declaration of victory during the debate suggests desperation rather than confidence, indicating a potential loss in his campaign.

Kamala Harris Will 'Win' First Debate With Trump, Polymarket Traders Are Betting

Prediction markets reveal hesitance in the impact of debates on polls, as seen by unsuccessful manipulative strategies and regained stability post-debate.

Dragonfly, Crypto.com Weigh in on CFTC's Proposed Prediction Market Rules

Crypto industry criticizes CFTC's proposed rules on prediction markets, highlighting concerns of overreach and ambiguity.

Polymarket Whales Favor Trump as Election Betting Surges Past $400M

Main Prediction Market Insights: Trump favored over Harris, China to keep Bitcoin ban, Coinbase volume to decrease.
#polymarket

Prediction markets notch win with Biden's drop out

Prediction markets like Polymarket can offer insights ahead of traditional wisdom, showcasing both strengths and limitations.

Bitcoin ETF Frenzy Brings Windfall Volume to Decentralized Predictions Platform Polymarket

Polymarket experienced a surge in trading volume to $5.7 million after the SEC approved bitcoin ETFs.
The trading volume on Polymarket exceeded that of leading NFT marketplace OpenSea, which had a volume of $3.9 million.

Trump Conviction Barely Dents His Odds of Winning Election: Prediction Markets

Despite Trump's conviction, prediction markets indicate he still has a significant chance of returning to the White House.

Prediction markets notch win with Biden's drop out

Prediction markets like Polymarket can offer insights ahead of traditional wisdom, showcasing both strengths and limitations.

Bitcoin ETF Frenzy Brings Windfall Volume to Decentralized Predictions Platform Polymarket

Polymarket experienced a surge in trading volume to $5.7 million after the SEC approved bitcoin ETFs.
The trading volume on Polymarket exceeded that of leading NFT marketplace OpenSea, which had a volume of $3.9 million.

Trump Conviction Barely Dents His Odds of Winning Election: Prediction Markets

Despite Trump's conviction, prediction markets indicate he still has a significant chance of returning to the White House.
morepolymarket

Trump or Biden? The Stock Market Doesn't Care.

Prediction markets show tight race between Biden and Trump, despite strong economy and stock market performance.

Risk Assets Like Bitcoin Are Defying Low Fed Rate Cut Expectations: Analyst

Risk assets like bitcoin are resilient to U.S. inflation and a Fed rate cut.
Prediction markets suggest that BTC will hit an all-time high this year.

What Prediction Markets Are Forecasting for Crypto in 2024

Prediction markets allow participants to bet on the outcome of real-world events and provide insights into what people really think.
Crypto is taking prediction markets to the next level by making them borderless, permissionless, and automating functions.

Biden Likely to Win Popular Vote, but Not Presidency, Prediction Market Signals

Prediction markets show indications on popular vote outcomes.
Regulatory settlements impact prediction market access for U.S. users.

Will Trump Trounce Biden? Polymarket Traders Are Betting on It.

Prediction markets may exhibit a bias towards front-runners like Trump but aim to be reliable gauges of sentiment, superior to traditional polling methods.
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