#prediction-markets

#prediction-markets

Following the federal government's wide-armed embrace of the tech, professional gamblers are flooding into prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket. It's not hard to see why: in January alone, trading volume on Kalshi almost hit $10 billion, $8.5 billion of which was tied to sports, according to new reporting by Bloomberg. That same month, Kalshi saw three million new downloads. The waters, in other words, are teeming with prey - and the sharks are moving in.

This week: Anthropic released an update that seems to have tipped the scales against Software as a Service companies, erasing billions in market value. Felix Salmon, Elizabeth Spiers, and Emily Peck, unpack why there was such a massive market response to such a small AI plugin, and what it says about the future of tech investment. Then, Disney has finally named a new CEO in Josh D'Amaro.

The bill zeroes in on prediction market platforms that let users buy and sell positions on future events through a bid-ask system. Topics can range from elections to economic indicators. The legislation draws clear boundaries, explicitly excluding sports wagering, online casino gaming, internet games, and traditional securities or commodities trading already governed by existing law. If approved, the measure would make it illegal for any prediction market platform operating in Connecticut to allow a resident under 21 to register or open a speculative position.

We're excited to officially unveil the new era of prediction markets for sports fans with the launch of OG! Make your call now at https://t.co/X9D1s2StPQ. Read more here: https://t.co/a2FrohML3B pic.twitter.com/6suaOYy1yL - Crypto.com (@cryptocom) February 3, 2026

Free groceries, courtesy of your favorite prediction market. That's the stunt that both Kalshi and Polymarket are attempting to pull off in New York City, in an apparent nod to Mayor Zohran Mamdani's pledge to open city-run grocery stores. Kalshi's offering arrived first, offering shoppers up to $50 worth of free groceries at Westside Market, a grocery store in Manhattan's East Village on Tuesday. Business Insider attended the event and found a long line.

The concept is familiar to anyone who has watched the surge of US "event contracts" over the last year, contracts priced like probabilities rather than traditional odds. What is new is the attempt to package that format within the UK's established gambling framework, and to do so within a business that already uses exchange-style pricing. The timing also lands amid a tightening tax backdrop for remote gambling and a regulatory debate in the US about where trading ends and wagering begins.

A new prediction markets startup with strong ties to billionaire Thomas Peterffy is hiring staff and preparing to launch, job postings and corporate filings reviewed by Business Inside show. Lumina Markets began advertising last week for roles in marketing and legal. Job listings say it's "backed by a billionaire pioneer of electronic trading," and note that it's preparing to launch a new prediction markets platform. The jobs were posted on LinkedIn by an employee at Interactive Brokers, the trading giant founded by Peterffy.

At leading prediction market Kalshi, more than $47 million has been staked this season on what are known as NFL announcer mention markets, where users trade on the probability of what the play-by-play broadcaster or color analyst will -- or will not -- say during games. Since September, the average amount risked on NFL announcer mention markets has grown more than seven times, from less than half a million per game at the start of the season to $3.55 million on the AFC and NFC championship games

It appears that ads from companies like Polymarket or Kalshi will not air during the upcoming Super Bowl. According to the NFL, the league placed prediction market commercials under its "prohibited categories" for Super Bowl advertising on February 8. As reported by Front Office Sports, prediction markets now sit under the same category as tobacco, pornography, firearms, "and other controversial subjects."

Includes prediction markets in the definition of gambling by specifying that the purchase, sale, or financial speculation of securities or commodities on the outcome or future contingent events related to sports, contests, people, politics, catastrophe, and death.

Sometime in the early 1970s, a young Rick Rieder sat in his elementary school cafeteria, not eating. Instead, he stared at his lunch money-a quarter-and weighed the probability of an Oakland Raiders victory. He would obsess over microdata, like how the football team played on turf versus grass, searching for a marginal edge that would turn his 25 cents into 50. Then, he'd bet. When he lost, he went hungry, he told podcaster and author William Green.