#prediction-markets

#prediction-markets

Enten began by telling anchor Sara Sidner, I will just note it is never, never too early to talk about this because these guys are running already, even if they haven't formally declared. They're already running, and JD Vance is running well ahead of the field. I mean, take a look here. Top chances to be the 2028 GOP press nominee, the prediction market odds.

In this episode of Galaxy Brain, Charlie Warzel explores the burgeoning industry of prediction markets. These platforms let people wager on everything from elections and award shows to the most trivial internet ephemera, framing bets as tradable "shares" that rise and fall like stocks. With billions in weekly trading volume, massive new funding rounds, and even a CNN partnership with the prediction-betting platform, Kalshi, prediction markets are quickly moving from niche curiosity to mainstream-media fixture-openly touting ambitions to financialize everything.

Robinhood is betting that its customers want to trade on absolutely everything. On Tuesday, the popular stock-trading app unveiled a slate of updates to its prediction markets business, aggressively expanding into sports. Now, Robinhood users can trade contracts tied to specific professional football players' performances, as well as pre-packaged combos for individual games. Early next year, customers will be able to combine up to ten outcomes - such as winners, spreads, and totals - into a single, custom-built contract.

Besides blocking users from reading its website with an AI chatbot, the magazine anointed the "architects of AI" as its most important visionaries of 2025, eschewing the definition of "person" yet again. The eyeroll-inducing announcement was met with plenty of incredulity, especially considering the astronomical amount of money being spent on building out data centers, their enormous carbon footprint, and a whole litany of other ethical conundrums that the embrace of generative AI has spawned.

Time Magazine revealed its Person of the Year for 2025. It wasn't one person, but many different people who are all at the helm of pushing AI technology. This has caused some prediction market gamblers who had bet on AI itself earning the distinction to start yelling a lot online. It's very funny, but also a horrible glimpse at our bet-on-everything future.

Consistent with the United States' continued slide into an economy powered almost entirely by LLM slop, financialization, and ever-pervasive exploitative gambling, "prediction market app" Kalshi "entered into an official partnership" with CNN this week to bring their "data to CNN's journalism across its television, digital and social channels." Soon, CNN will run live odds on world events where its viewers can gamble on them in real time on their smartphones.

The Axios report continued: The collaboration marks the first major news partnership for Kalshi, as it looks to establish itself as the most authoritative source of information about the real-time probabilities of major cultural and political future events, CEO and co-founder Tarek Mansour tells Axios. As part of the deal, Kalshi prediction data will be featured on-air as a real-time data ticker. There will also be prediction market content related to politics, news, culture and weather,

Trump Media & Technology Group (TMTG), the parent company of Truth Social, has announced a groundbreaking partnership with Crypto.com | Derivatives North America (CDNA) to launch the first-ever prediction markets embedded within a social media platform. The collaboration will enable Truth Social's users to trade event-based contracts - from elections and interest rate changes to sports outcomes and commodity prices - under the brand "Truth Predict."

Shayne Coplan, 27, is always in a hurry. Last year, he arrived at a Manhattan dinner hosted by a venture capital firm for networking, dressed in jeans and a leather jacket. He had been invited as one of the most promising entrepreneurs of the moment, but after a brief chat, he got up while the main course was being served and left for a concert in Brooklyn. At this pace, Coplan has become the world's youngest self-made billionaire.

"It was not Zohran Mamdani's debate performance. It was Curtis Sliwa's statement after the debate that he is not leaving that has tipped the odds to 90% for Mamdani," Ackman wrote on X.

* Judge considering sanctioning DOJ lawyers over repeated statements compromising fairness of Mangione trial. [ NY Times] * Roberta Kaplan representing Disney shareholders seeking discovery to determine if Kimmel suspension demonstrates a breach of fiduciary duties. [ Semafor] * Group challenging SEC gag rule, which prevents parties who voluntarily settle enforcement cases from turning around and telling the market they did nothing wrong, seeks en banc review from the Ninth Circuit. But, you know, you don't have to settle. [ Law.com]

Tremor tracks volatility on Polymarket , a prediction market that lets traders bet on the outcome of future events. The goal of Saravanan's new tool: Spot sudden swings and identify potentially valuable situations where insiders may know more than the general population. "If the chance of a ceasefire in a war jumps from 50% to 80%, but there's no news, it's likely someone with inside info is acting on Polymarket," Saravanan told me.

"Prediction markets remind me of crypto 15 years ago: a new asset class on a path to trillions," Matt Huang, co-founder and managing partner at Paradigm, told TechCrunch in an emailed statement. "There's no better team than Kalshi to scale prediction markets and reshape how people think about everything from elections and economic markets to weather and sports."