#prediction-markets

#prediction-markets

According to AAA, the national average gas price has jumped to $3.45 per gallon today. One week ago, the average was $2.98 per gallon - a 16% spike in a single week. For context, the all-time record average was $5.016 per gallon, set on June 22, 2022.

Polymarket and Kalshi have emerged as the biggest players in the burgeoning prediction markets industry. The platforms have popularized betting on the outcomes of future events, from when the United States would invade Iran or Venezuela to whether Amazon cofounder Jeff Bezos would show up at this year's Super Bowl.

Yo brother, legal team confirmed that we can't work with minors rn. Kinda sad tbh. A Kalshi employee's message to a 15-year-old streamer illustrates the company's willingness to recruit underage users before legal concerns forced termination of the partnership.

Nobody should be making bets on if the United States is going to war, or what words President Trump is going to use in his speech. Those are fundamentally corrupt markets, because there are people on the inside who know the answer, and it perverts the decision-making process.

In September, Kalshi briefly signed up a 15-year-old videogame streamer who goes by vert1d online to promote its brand on X as an affiliate. Why didn't the partnership last? Well, someone from Kalshi's legal department apparently found out and was not happy.

The legislation, if passed, would also curtail other members of the executive branch from profiting on the platforms, or face fines of at least $10,000 for each violation. The bill also states that violators will have to pay back profits made in trades.

Betr, based in Miami, says the multi-year agreement will bring Polymarket's prediction market infrastructure into the app many customers already use for sports gaming. Once it launches, people will be able to speculate on the likelihood of future events spanning sports, politics, entertainment, and cultural topics without leaving the platform.

If a person dies, according to the new rule, all bets related to them will be paid out at the odds that existed just before they died or their death was 'reasonably anticipated by market participants.' The rule goes into effect March 17, according to the notice.

At least 125 employees, which is more than 20% of the company's workforce, were let go as Underdog shifts away from some of its traditional offerings and leans more heavily into prediction markets. Teams in fraud operations, marketing, customer support, and product were among those affected.

Alan Cole, senior economist at the Tax Foundation, took that bet, telling WSJ reporter Richard Rubin how and why he dropped $342,195.63 into a prediction-market wager on the Kalshi platform. Cole said that he looked at the terms of the Kalshi wager and saw an opportunity, because he did not believe anything Musk would do would significantly curtail spending on interest on the national debt or entitlements like Social Security and Medicare, especially as America's population continued to age.

The National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA) is again turning up the pressure on prediction market operator Kalshi, this time tying its trademark concerns directly to March Madness, the association's signature men's and women's basketball tournaments. The NCAA claims that Kalshi has used its name, marks and event branding in ways that suggest an official link. March Madness is owned and controlled by the NCAA, and the association says any implication of endorsement or verification crosses a legal line.

From day one, our mission was simple: make it easy and reliable to build in prediction markets. There's no better place to push that mission forward than Polymarket.

A new research paper published by a trio of Federal Reserve economists suggests that the prediction market platform is a useful method for measuring macroeconomic expectations - and it may even be better than some traditional methods. "Our results suggest that Kalshi markets provide a high-frequency, continuously updated, distributionally rich benchmark that is valuable to both researchers and policymakers," the researchers wrote.