"If Cole, an international tax accountant, knew anything in life it was this: federal spending couldn't be quickly whacked, he told the WSJ. Even if DOGE nixed some federal contracts and laid off workers (which it did), plenty of remaining obligations and the skyrocketing federal debt would remain."
"So, he wagered his entire life savings - over $342,000 - to take the counter bet that the U.S. federal budget wouldn't insta-shrink. He slowly amassed 3% of a Kalshi prediction market that had grown to $12 million (making a few hedging bets along the way), he told the WSJ."
"When the government released the 2025 year-end spending report on February 20, showing increases compared to 2024, Cole walked away with $470,300 and a handsome $128,000 profit."
Alan Cole, an international tax accountant, identified an opportunity on the prediction market Kalshi where Elon Musk supporters were betting that the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) could significantly reduce federal spending within a year. Confident in his expertise that federal spending could not be quickly reduced despite DOGE's efforts to eliminate contracts and lay off workers, Cole invested his entire life savings of over $342,000 in the counter bet. He gradually accumulated 3% of the $12 million prediction market while making strategic hedging bets. When the government released its 2025 year-end spending report on February 20, showing spending increases compared to 2024, Cole's bet proved correct, netting him $470,300 and a profit of $128,000.
Read at TechCrunch
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