"If a person dies, according to the new rule, all bets related to them will be paid out at the odds that existed just before they died or their death was 'reasonably anticipated by market participants.' The rule goes into effect March 17, according to the notice."
"The update comes after Kalshi paid $2.2 million to resolve complaints from users who were confused by the way it divided the $55 million wagered on Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's ouster after his targeted killing by Israel and the US."
"The point of the change, Kalshi said, was to 'minimize market disruption, minimize perverse incentives, and protect the markets.' Federal regulations prohibit making markets based on assassination, war, terrorism, and certain other topics."
Kalshi, a prediction market platform, implemented new standardized rules for markets involving person survival, effective March 17. The change requires all bets to be paid at odds existing just before death or when death was reasonably anticipated. This update followed a $2.2 million settlement resolving user complaints about how Kalshi divided $55 million wagered on Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's ouster. Previously, different Kalshi markets resolved differently when central figures died. The standardization aims to minimize market disruption, reduce perverse incentives, and protect markets. Federal regulations prohibit markets on assassination, war, and terrorism, prompting Senator Chris Murphy to propose legislation banning profiting from war and death.
Read at Business Insider
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