"A Polymarket user known as Magamyman reportedly made more than $500,000 in a single day with a bet on US-Israel strikes that Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, would be out of power, raising concerns of insider trading. Mike Levin, a Democratic representative from California, highlighted that this user bought in on the position when the probability of a strike was at 17 percent and with the first trade placed 71 minutes before the news broke publicly."
"Other users named Planktonbet, Dicedicedice, and nothingeverhappens911 also placed bets within 24 hours of the strike on the potential of a US strike, according to data compiled by analytics firm Bubblemap. All accounts were opened in February and exclusively placed bets on Iran."
"This echoes past incidents that spooked lawmakers amid concerns of profiteering from war and of potential insider trading. Those red flags were raised, for instance, when a trader profited from a prediction on former Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro's abduction hours before it occurred, or another trader made $50,000 prior to opposition leader Maria Corina Machado winning the Nobel Peace Prize."
Anonymous traders on prediction market platforms Polymarket and Kalshi profited significantly from bets placed hours before US-Israel strikes on Iran. A user named Magamyman earned over $500,000 betting that Supreme Leader Khamenei would be removed from power, purchasing positions when strike probability was only 17 percent and trading 71 minutes before public announcement. Multiple other accounts opened in February exclusively bet on Iran within 24 hours of the strikes. These incidents mirror previous suspicious trading patterns, including profits from predictions about Venezuelan political events. Polymarket's cryptocurrency-based anonymous structure has drawn scrutiny from lawmakers concerned about insider trading and war profiteering, while Kalshi operates as the only US-regulated prediction market requiring user identification.
Read at www.aljazeera.com
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