Polymarket Takes Down Betting on Nuclear Detonation After Backlash

"Polymarket has created a market that would monetize a nuclear attack amid increasing concerns that bets are happening among government insiders who can make military decisions. The existence of the market was heavily criticized online, with users raising concerns that it could influence U.S. officials' decisions."

"The market allowed users to bet on whether a nuclear weapon would be detonated by the end of March, June, or the end of the year. At the time of his post, users had placed over $800,000 worth of bets on the question, with users predicting a 22 percent chance that one would be dropped by 2027."

"Early this year, the group set their Doomsday Clock to 85 seconds to midnight, the closest it's ever been, warning that global powers like Russia and the U.S. are bringing the world even closer to nuclear catastrophe."

Polymarket created and subsequently archived a prediction market allowing users to bet on whether a nuclear weapon would be detonated by specific dates in 2025. The market accumulated over $800,000 in bets with users assigning a 22 percent probability to nuclear detonation by 2027. Critics, including journalist David Sirota, argued the market could influence U.S. officials' military decisions and monetize nuclear attacks. This controversy followed earlier criticism of Polymarket for enabling bets on U.S.-Israel military action against Iran. The incident raises concerns about prediction markets on geopolitical catastrophes and potential insider trading among government officials with decision-making authority.

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