"At 7:45 p.m. eastern time, a single trader put down nearly $100,000 on the claim that, by the end of December, the Trump administration will confirm that alien life or technology exists elsewhere in our universe. According to The Atlantic's review of Kalshi's trading data, about 35 minutes after this bet was executed, it was followed by another that was almost twice as large."
"For one brief stretch, the market appeared to think that there was at least a one-in-three chance that the U.S. government will announce the existence of aliens this year. Perhaps this was just some overexcited UFO diehard with a hunch and money to burn. Or maybe, as some observers quickly noted, it was a trader with inside knowledge."
"Money started pouring in 10 days ago, after Barack Obama was asked, in a podcast interview, whether aliens are real and replied, 'They're real, but I haven't seen 'em.' Although he later clarified on Instagram that he had meant only to suggest that in our mind-bendingly expansive universe of stars and planets, other life forms are very likely to exist, his remark had already made international headlines."
A prediction market on Kalshi saw significant trading activity when large bets were placed on whether the Trump administration will confirm alien life or technology exists by December. Nearly $100,000 was wagered initially, followed by a larger bet, temporarily pushing market odds to suggest a one-in-three chance of such an announcement. The market gained attention after Barack Obama mentioned aliens exist in a podcast interview, which he later clarified to mean life likely exists elsewhere in the universe. Trump subsequently directed the Secretary of Defense and federal agencies to begin releasing government files related to aliens and unidentified aerial phenomena, potentially fueling speculation among traders.
#prediction-markets #alien-disclosure #trump-administration #kalshi-trading #government-transparency
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