"The political fight in the US over the future of prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi has escalated into a full-blown war, and battle lines aren't being neatly drawn along party lines. Instead, conservative Mormons have aligned themselves with Las Vegas bigwigs and MAGA royalty is siding with liberal Democrat lobbyists. One side argues that the platforms are breaking the law by operating as shadow casinos."
"These companies offer "event contracts" to customers, allowing them to trade shares tied to the outcomes of almost anything, from who will win this year's Oscar for Best Actor to what the price of Bitcoin will be at the end of the day. The most popular category by far is sports. Kalshi reported a daily record of over $800 million in trades on Super Bowl Sunday related to the game alone, and over $1.3 billion traded on contracts related to the event altogether."
Prediction markets such as Kalshi and Polymarket have become mainstream trading platforms where users buy event contracts tied to outcomes ranging from awards to Bitcoin prices. Kalshi operates in all 50 states while Polymarket was banned in 2022 for operating as an unregistered derivatives market and later returned in limited form. Sports contracts dominate trading volume, including over $800 million on a single Super Bowl Sunday and $1.3 billion across related contracts. Industry leaders are billion-dollar companies attracting casual speculators and professional traders. Supporters say markets democratize access to commodities trading and improve forecasting. Opponents insist the platforms function as shadow casinos and violate securities or betting laws, fueling a sustained regulatory and political conflict.
Read at WIRED
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