'A threat to the survival of the planet': Insider trading fears rise over Polymarket nuclear war market
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'A threat to the survival of the planet': Insider trading fears rise over Polymarket nuclear war market
"Prediction platform Polymarket lets users bet on everything from pop culture to global politics to the amount of times Elon Musk will post on X in a week. But one of its latest markets seems to have crossed an ethical line: an event titled "Nuclear weapon detonation by...?" where users could bet on when a nuclear bomb would go off."
"The market raised concerns on social media about the potential for "insider trading" by government officials and their inner circles, who critics suggested could be incentivized to push for nuclear war if they'd bet on it happening by a given date."
"Journalist David Sirota called attention to the event with a viral post on X, pointing out that the market would "monetize a nuclear attack." Other users across social media chimed in to agree with Sirota, calling Polymarket "a threat to the survival of the planet" and saying that a gambling-motivated nuclear war "would be such a bleak ending to humanity.""
Polymarket, a prediction platform enabling users to bet on various events, created a market allowing gambling on nuclear weapon detonation timing. Users wagered more than $838,000, predicting detonations by specific dates including end of 2026, with Polymarket initially estimating a 22% probability. The market was archived following significant online backlash. Critics raised concerns about potential insider trading, suggesting government officials could be incentivized to pursue nuclear conflict if they had placed bets on such outcomes. Prominent figures including journalist David Sirota condemned the market as monetizing nuclear attacks, with social media users characterizing it as dystopian and threatening to planetary survival.
Read at Fast Company
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