In the Age of Prediction Markets, Everything Is a Bet. Will Art Be Next?

"There was a window, roughly from 2010 to early 2022, when art was a means of financial speculation: in WhatsApp group chats; around opening night dinners. Buyers would throw themselves onto wait lists without even having seen the works. During bidding wars for young and untested artists, the energy would be palpable; the bubble of NFTs added a rush of momentum. And while these moments have passed, gambling energy is peaking in society at large. So, what gives?"

"We are in an era marked by the financial gamification of everything. With a few exceptions, anything framed as a win-lose proposition is bet on via prediction markets. On these virtual exchange platforms, the public can bet on minor and major election outcomes, geopolitical developments, celebrity behaviors, and the most granular events imaginable. Basically, if an outcome can be split into a yes or no binary, you can wager your money on it."

"It even opened a free grocery store in New York City, equal parts marketing stunt and financial power flex. There are alternatives including and , each processing up to billions of dollars every week. I first started surfing Polymarket during the Trump-Biden election, mostly out of curiosity but also because, in an era of algorithmic media, these bets function like a financialized comment section."

Art operated as large-scale financial speculation from about 2010 to early 2022, with wait lists, bidding wars for untested artists, and an NFT-driven rush. Gambling energy has shifted beyond art into a broader cultural momentum as finance becomes gamified. Many outcomes framed as win-lose propositions are wagered on prediction markets that let the public bet on elections, geopolitics, celebrity behavior, and granular events. Polymarket, founded in 2020, dominates this unregulated space and staged conspicuous marketing moves; alternatives handle billions weekly. Some users treat these markets like financialized comment sections, perceiving parallels with boom-and-bust art-market dynamics.

Read at Artnet News