"I promise it was fine and I was never worried about it. Closer to 100% than 99%, ex ante. The article mentions I considered it... federal spending is currently dominated by senior programs that have automated increases built in, plus interest payments on the national debt. Growth in these things is simply larger than the discretionary spending cuts."
Alan Cole, a 37-year-old senior economist at the Tax Foundation in Washington, DC, wagered his life savings on a prediction market bet that federal spending in each quarter of 2025 would exceed fourth quarter 2024 levels. His $342,195.63 bet on Kalshi resulted in a $470,300 win, generating a 37% return. Cole structured multiple sub-bets to manage risk, requiring federal spending to fall by more than $50 billion for him to lose money. Federal spending ultimately grew by hundreds of billions of dollars in 2025 despite DOGE's stated goal of slashing federal expenditures. Cole characterized the bet as low-risk, comparable to a bond investment, citing mandatory spending programs with automated increases and debt interest payments that exceed potential discretionary spending cuts.
Read at Business Insider
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