"You know the old saying, if it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, it's a duck? If it looks like a sports bet, if it sounds like a sports bet, if it pays off like a sports bet, if it's on a sporting event-it's a sports bet."
"While a traditional sportsbook will offer customers a chance to place a bet on which team will win or lose a game, a prediction market will offer an 'event contract' on the outcome. Critics view the difference as little more than a loophole, and state authorities from across the country are currently pursuing lawsuits against prediction market companies like Kalshi, alleging that they violate state gambling law."
Mick Mulvaney, former Trump administration official and acting White House chief of staff, is leading a new advocacy coalition called Gambling Is Not Investing to push for prediction markets to be regulated under state gambling laws. Mulvaney argues that prediction markets function identically to sports betting despite being classified as derivatives by the federal Commodity Futures Trading Commission. He contends that event contracts offered by prediction market platforms like Kalshi are substantively equivalent to traditional sports bets. Other prominent Republicans, including former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie and current Utah Governor Spencer Cox, have joined this effort. State authorities across the country are pursuing lawsuits against prediction market companies, alleging violations of state gambling laws.
#prediction-markets #gambling-regulation #sports-betting #federal-vs-state-oversight #derivatives-classification
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