#inflation

#inflation

The last time unemployment was 5% was in August 2021. The job market was rebounding from the COVID-19 pandemic, which had driven the jobless rate to 14.8% in April of the previous year. Economists often refer to 5% as "full employment." Above that level, there is a possibility of an inflationary increase. The jobless rate was 4.2% in July. It is up a fraction from 3.4% in April of last year.

One of the emails that parents dread most during summer months is the list of school supplies that will be required for their children's classes. Sometimes, it coincides with having to buy a new computer, clothes and shoes, in addition to tuition payments and monthly preschool fees. All this makes back-to-school the second-largest annual expense for families. The annual ritual is further complicated this year by a combination of cumulative price increases over the last few years and expected price hikes due to tariffs.

High home prices and mortgage rates have created unaffordable conditions for many Americans, but the housing market's ability to create more wealth has sputtered. That's because even as home prices continue to hover around record levels, they are also edging lower and lagging behind the rate of inflation, which has heated up amid President Donald Trump's tariffs. "For the first time in years, home prices are failing to keep pace with broader inflation," said NicholasGodec, head of Fixed Income Tradables & Commodities at S&P Dow Jones Indices, in a statement on Tuesday.

Negotiations with several of them (with India itself, as well as China, Canada, and Mexico, the trio of nations that accounts for almost half of U.S. imports) remain ongoing, but all of them already have a base figure, a tariff floor on which to build or, in most cases, deconstruct their once-solid trade ties. Domestic and foreign policy aside, the new tariff framework paints a new picture for trade.

Just over half (53%) of leaders say revenue increased year-on-year over the second quarter-nearly double the 28% who say it dropped. However, increases are largely the result of higher menu prices and new openings, and the CGA RSM Hospitality Business Tracker has indicated broadly flat spending on a like-for-like basis in the first half of 2025. Meanwhile, higher costs-including higher minimum pay levels and National Insurance contributions from April, as well as sustained inflation in food and drink-have hurt the margins of many operators.

Dublin households need between €140k and €200k if they want to beat inflation

Mortgage rates have traded lower for now, which is a win for borrowers and lenders, said Geno Paluso, CEO at mortgage servicing software company Sagent. But lenders must stay prepared for continued rate volatility as the Fed and markets balance unemployment and inflation risks. Kevin Peranio, chief lending officer and partner at Paramount Residential Mortgage Group (PRMG), added that softening labor conditions are fueling the downward trend in mortgage rates, creating more revenue for larger lenders to invest in artificial intelligence and operational efficiencies.

Zandi sees GDP growth hitting a low of 1%, down from 3% in the second quarter, with inflation peaking at 3.5%. The latest personal consumption expenditures price index showed the annual rate was at 2.6% in June, while the July consumer price index rose 2.7%. But even that outlook may be too low. Zandi previously told Fortune that if Trump continues deporting immigrants at the current rate, inflation could get closer to 4% if and when it peaks, likely early next year.

The moves were stronger in the bond market, where Treasury yields rose after a report forced Wall Street to scale back hopes that the Federal Reserve may soon deliver relief by cutting interest rates. The report suggested growth in U.S. business activity is accelerating and hit its fastest rate so far this year. That's good news for the economy, but the preliminary data from S&P Global also said tariffs helped push up average selling prices at the fastest rate in three years. That's a discouraging sign for inflation.

With rising inflation showing no signs of slowing down, Americans are tightening their belts by opting to dine in. Though higher costs make eating at home the more cost-friendly option, people will always swing by an eatery when in need of a quick bite. Fast food used to be the go-to spot for cheap food, but casual spots like Texas Roadhouse and Olive Garden seem to be winning more customers.

There's more troubling news for the white-collar job market: wage growth is falling short of inflation. A Bankrate analysis used employment cost index and consumer price index data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics to look at how the gap between wage and salary growth and inflation has changed since 2021. The difference allowed Bankrate to identify the industries with better worker bargaining power. Financial activities and professional and business services fell on the wrong side of that divide. Wage growth falling behind inflation in those sectors adds to the bleak picture of the white-collar labor market.

The street is filled with rows of shops and restaurants, along with food carts, street vendors and food trucks along the avenue. The almost-but-not-quite the weekend lag leaves hungry commuters faced with another choice to make throughout their day.

Moody's chief economist Mark Zandi predicts that if Trump continues deporting immigrants at the current rate, inflation could rise from 2.5% to nearly 4% by next year.

"Overall, consumers are no longer bracing for the worst-case scenario for the economy feared in April, when President Trump announced his stunning set of worldwide tariffs. However, consumers continue to expect both inflation and unemployment to deter their spending decisions."

World shares are generally higher after most stocks on Wall Street fell following a disappointing report that said inflation was worse last month at the U.S. wholesale level than economists had expected.

The Producer Price Index (PPI) was up 3.3% in July compared to a year ago, with a 0.9% month-over-month increase, indicating inflation pressures.

"U.S. producer prices surged 0.9% m/m in July, far exceeding expectations of 0.2% and marking the largest monthly gain since June 2022. On an annual basis, PPI rose 3.3%, up from 2.4% in June, while core PPI jumped to 3.7% from 2.6%. The data shattered forecasts across the board, underscoring the inflationary impact of recent tariff policy and justifying Fed caution regarding rate cuts," George Vessey of Convera told clients this morning.

Nigerian equities opened flat on Thursday, with electronic technology and health technology outperforming.

Consumers can easily miss price changes unless they track prices meticulously, which is impractical for most people.

The Labor Department reported Thursday that its producer price index rose 0.9% last month from June, biggest jump in more than three years.