#interest-rates

#interest-rates

The current pressure is largely driven by tensions in the Middle East, as signals from the U.S. and Iran remain conflicting. While the U.S. has indicated that negotiations are ongoing, Iran has firmly denied any talks, increasing uncertainty around the prospects of de-escalation.

Brevan Howard's Master fund has given back its 2026 gains after falling 6% this month through last Friday, while Caxton Associates is down 15% on the month.

By Q4 2025, management acknowledged the math. The quarterly dividend was cut to $0.09 per share, down from $0.25, with CEO Theodore Koenig citing 'the decrease in base rates' as a key driver.

The Bank of England has held rates at 3.75 percent, with global tensions including the conflict in Iran keeping inflation risks alive and delaying hoped-for cuts.

Sterling fell by 0.5% against the dollar, dropping below $1.33, as the US currency strengthened due to a flight to safety. The dollar index increased by 0.3%.

Financial markets were firmly in the red as investors reacted to the Middle East conflict intensifying, with stocks down across Asia and Europe. Gold also fell, which suggests investors are once again liquidating assets that have previously served them well, or they are reacting to a further strengthening in the US dollar.

War in the Middle East has pushed up energy prices. You can already see that at the petrol pump and, if it lasts, it will feed into higher household energy bills later in the year. Whatever happens, our job is to make sure inflation gets back to its 2% target.

It's unwelcome news for borrowers, as hopes of steadily falling mortgage rates have collapsed and given way to a much more uncertain outlook.

Money expert Martin Lewis has urged savers to ensure they are getting tax-free returns of nearly five per cent on their money as a key deadline looms. The new financial year begins on 6 April, marking the last date individual savings account (Isa) holders can use their full 20,000 allowance for the year.

Refinance applications increased for the fourth straight week to the strongest pace since 2022, with conventional refinances up 20%. The increase in the average loan size for refinances indicates that more borrowers with larger loan sizes are seeking to lower their monthly payments.

For the ECB, today's German inflation data will not change the course of monetary policy. The figures confirm that at least for the time being, inflation no longer tops the list of concerns for European policymakers.

The benefits of using a cash ISA are clear: no tax payable on the interest earned, regardless of amounts, and you can put in up to 20,000 a year for now. That will change from April 2027, capped at 12,000 (the rest can go into other ISA types), but if you'd even been putting in 150 - nowhere near enough to max your allowance - you'd still have been able to save up more than 21,000 after a decade, assuming an average 3 per cent interest rate.

The markets are under pressure to start the session, with all three of the major stock market averages trading in the red. The U.S. is preparing for potential airstrikes on Iran amid escalating tensions, drawing comparisons to the situation leading up to the Iraq invasion in the early 2000s, though President Trump is hopeful for a deal. The uncertainty has sent the Brent oil price soaring to above the $71 per barrel threshold, while Exxon Mobil ( NYSE: XOM) is tacking on 1% today.

The dollar remained range-bound on Tuesday, reflecting a market caught amid mixed economic data. Caution could dominate the market ahead of Friday's core PCE and updated GDP figures, both of which could recalibrate short-term expectations for US monetary policy. In the meantime, the 2-year and 10-year yields were hovering near multi-month lows, reflecting an increasingly confident market that the Federal Reserve may deliver up to three consecutive interest rate cuts.

U.S. financial markets ended the week on a cautious note as investors weighed strong employment data against growing concerns about the impact of artificial intelligence on traditional business models. Major stock indexes declined, led by technology-heavy shares, reflecting worries that rapid AI developments may disrupt established industries and earnings outlooks. The Nasdaq Composite recorded the steepest losses, while the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average also finished lower. Value-oriented stocks continued to outperform growth stocks, extending a trend that has persisted for several weeks.

Just in: GREAT JOBS NUMBERS, FAR GREATER THAN EXPECTED! The United States of America should be paying MUCH LESS on its Borrowings (BONDS!). We are again the strongest Country in the World, and should therefore be paying the LOWEST INTEREST RATE, by far. This would be an INTEREST COST SAVINGS OF AT LEAST ONE TRILLION DOLLARS PER YEAR BALANCED BUDGET, PLUS. WOW! The Golden Age of America is upon us!!!

In addition, if the January consumer price index number, to be posted on Friday, comes in below expectations, there may be no rate cuts until the summer, if then. The best move for growth and income investors seeking solid passive income is to start adding top companies now, as interest rates will rise with no help from the Federal Reserve.

Even though confidence is seeping out of the US economy, employers are taking a glass‑half‑full approach and have taken on more staff than expected. While there could be anomalies in this delayed data release, given the chaos of the partial government shutdown, it does indicate that the US economy is continuing to show resilience. This has helped propel the internationally focused FTSE 100 higher in afternoon trade, as prospects for the world's largest economy appear more upbeat.

Nearly 1.3 million mortgages including more than 500,000 originated in 2025 carry rates between 6.875% and 6.99%, the most sensitive group to recent rate declines. ICE cited data from the Mortgage Bankers Association, which found that refinance activity hit a 17-week high in the week ending Jan. 16, with refinances making up 62% of all applications. ICE estimates about two-thirds of these originations were rate-and-term refis.