#mortgage-rates

#mortgage-rates

If you look at the mortgage forecasts, it depends on which one you choose, but they're up anywhere from 8% to 25% based on the Fannie Mae and MBA numbers, Brown said during a webinar with Fitch Ratings. That would be very good for this industry. Brown said 2025 ultimately resembled 2024, although conditions improved in the latter half of the year as inventory increased and mortgage rates eased, but not as much as some of us would like.

Regional Concentration: Most relocations now occur within the same region rather than across the country. Households are increasingly "trading one nearby city for another" to find better housing affordability without leaving their home state or region. Proximity to Home: Over 50% of moves stay within the same county, and approximately 80% remain within the same state. Long-distance interstate moves accounted for only about 19.3% of all relocations in 2024-2025.

According to Yun, interpreting in-person home search activity for December poses some unique challenges with people traveling and taking time off for the holidays, as well as the challenges posed by winter weather in some markets. We'll be watching the data in the coming months to determine whether the soft contract signings were a one-month aberration or the start of an underlying trend, Yun said.

Mortgage rates declined further last week, driving another big week for refinance applications, which saw the strongest level of activity since September 2025. The 30-year fixed rate averaged 6.16%, the lowest rate since September 2024, said Joel Kan, MBA's vice president and deputy chief economist. These lower rates prompted greater refinance activity from conventional and VA refinance borrowers, with increases of 29% and 26%, respectively. Refinance applications accounted for more than 60% of applications, and the average loan size also moved higher.

Collins, the best-selling author of Pathfinders and The Simple Path to Wealth, said the reasoning is simple: Buying a home "dramtically inflate[s]" your cost of living. While your mortgage payment and rent payment may be similar on paper, owning a home ends up costing more in the long run and comes with unexpected expenses-often referred to as the "hidden costs" of homeownership, like insurance, repairs, and updates.

KEILAR: Some encouraging news today for the real estate market. Mortgage rates have now fallen to their lowest level in more than three years, and industry experts hope that it will help break the stalemate that has kept reluctant sellers from selling and would-be buyers from buying. CNN's Vanessa Yurkevich is with us now on this. All right, Vanessa, how low are we talking? VANESSA YURKEVICH, CNN BUSINESS & POLITICS CORRESPONDENT: Yes, we're talking about the lowest level in more than three years. So, the average rate for a mortgage, according to Freddie Mac this week, 6.06 percent.

Sales of new single-family houses in October 2025 were at a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 737,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 0.1 percent (14.2 percent)* below the September 2025 rate of 738,000, and is 18.7 percent (21.7 percent)* above the October 2024 rate of 621,000. There were some negative revisions to the past three months, but the trend still stayed positive.

Jobs Friday came and went without much reaction in bond yields because the labor market isn't breaking, nor is it getting stronger. Mortgage rates dropped into the 5s for a short time on Friday as a result of Trump's earlier announcement directing the GSEs to buy $200 billion in mortgage backed securities. The 10-year yield didn't move much after the report.

Sectors that showed notable job gains in December include food services and drinking places (+27,000 jobs), health care (+34,000 jobs) and social assistance (+17,000 jobs). On the other end of the spectrum, the retail trade sector lost 25,000 jobs in December. Residential building construction lost 4,200 jobs in December, although employment for residential specialty trade contractors rose by 1,100 jobs. The real estate sector also posted a small increase, adding 2,300 jobs in December.

Combined holdings at Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac grew at a 77% annualized pace over the six months ending in November 2025, rising by more than $68 billion to approximately $247 billion. There remains room for further expansion. Under the Preferred Stock Purchase Agreement (PSPA), each GSE's retained portfolio is capped at $250 billion, with an additional $225 billion limit imposed by the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) under a prior director.

In its analysis, the firm said it screened more than 10,000 Census-designated places in the largest 100 metro areas of the country, and chose from cities that had at least 500 active home listings in the last year. Its ranking also considered factors like housing availability, whether the city had a community of young people, the average estimated commute time, and affordability, which was weighted as one of the most important factors in Realtor.com's analysis.

As the country reemerged from the coronavirus pandemic lockdown in 2021- when the COVID vaccine finally arrived, TikTok reached 1 billion downloads and Adele finally released new music - the housing market also saw its own interesting development. That year, banks offered some of the lowest interest rates seen in over a decade for a type of housing loan known as an adjustable-rate mortgage.

In a housing market defined by high mortgage rates and tight inventory, the very top of the market is still moving-sometimes at jaw-dropping prices.

In a housing market defined by high mortgage rates and tight inventory, the very top of the market is still moving-sometimes at jaw-dropping prices.

The reason mortgage rates are near yearly lows as we end the year is that the labor market has softened and mortgage spreads have returned to near-normal levels. Without these two variables, mortgage rates would have stayed higher for longer. My 2026 forecast is for the 10-year yield to range between 3.80% and 4.60%, and for mortgage rates to range from 5.75% to 6.75%.

Overall mortgage application volume fell last week, despite the slight decline in mortgage rates, said Mike Fratantoni, MBA's SVP and chief economist. MBA expects the trends of a softening job market, sticky inflation, elevated home inventories and steady mortgage rates will persist into the new year. Added Fratantoni, Purchase application volume last week was 16% higher than a year earlier. We are forecasting continued, modest growth in terms of home sales in 2026.

Until the recent declines, July 2023 was the last time that year-over-year prices had fallen. Back then rising mortgage rates were knocking many buyers out of the market. Values started increasing again when the number of homes for sale plunged as sellers backed away, unwilling to give up mortgages they took out earlier in the pandemic with rates of 3% and lower.