#federal-reserve

#federal-reserve

Layoff announcements this year top 1.1 million, the most since 2020 when the pandemic hit, according to the Challenger jobs report, which has taken on a bit more significance lately due to the patchy official labour market data in the wake of the US government shutdown. The firm said layoff plans hit 71,321 in November, a down from the huge (22yr high for the month) cuts announced in October...the 1.17mn total is 54% higher than the same 11-month period a year ago

As the Federal Reserve prepares to end Quantitative Tightening (QT), the bitcoin price stands at a critical macroeconomic inflection point. With odds for a December rate cut now pricing it in as almost a certainty, the stage is set for a potential shift in monetary policy that could fundamentally alter the trajectory of Bitcoin and broader risk assets. History suggests that when the Fed's balance sheet stops contracting, Bitcoin typically experiences significant bullish catalysts.

Sometimes you have to take matters into your own hands. The government shutdown ended a while ago, but there's been at least one lingering effect: a lack of inflation data. The last CPI report was for September and released way back on October 24. November's inflation report - sorry October, we'll catch you next year - was scheduled to drop December 10, but got bumped to December 18. But who wants to wait another two-plus weeks?

"This Fed went to sleep," El-Erian, president of Queens College at the University of Cambridge, told CNBC. He said the independent central bank needs to admit it made some mistakes: It needs to think about scenario analysis as opposed to point estimates, it needs to look more closely at supply-side economics, and it needs to improve its culture of compliance.

Intentional or not, any hints Jerome Powell may drop about his outlook on the economy have the potential to move markets. While the chairman of the Federal Reserve has insisted time and again that the only factors he is focussed on is a mandate of inflation at 2% and maximum employment, he'll also be keeping Wall Street in his periphery. But before too long, the attention of analysts and investors may move elsewhere: President Trump is ready to announce his nomination.

USDJPY at one point moved toward 157.9 last week, reflecting the sharp divergence in monetary policy between the United States and Japan. However, the pair has retreated this week as the market is adjusting its expectations regarding both the Fed and the BoJ. The short-term trend of USDJPY is beginning to show signs of slowing. The key factors impacting the exchange rate are not only U.S. Treasury yields or policy differentials, but also Japan's expected policy adjustments and the clearly rising risk of foreign-exchange intervention.

In its sweeping Trump v. Wilcox decision in May, the Court ruled that the president "may remove without cause" officials in administrative agencies-a decision grounded in the Court's ringing endorsement of the so-called unitary executive. An elementary application of the unitary-executive theory would allow the White House to interfere, unchecked, with the Fed-just as the Court has empowered Trump to gut every other federal agency.

State of play: If the leadership triumvirate of chair Jerome Powell, vice-chair Philip Jefferson, and New York Fed President John Williams decide a rate cut is in order, they will surely be joined by the three Trump-appointed governors on the committee (Michelle Bowman, Stephen Miran, and Christopher Waller). But that only gets them to six votes of the 12 voting members of the FOMC. They need a seventh for a majority. Where, oh where, will the seventh vote come from?

The VIX, for those unfamiliar, measures expected 30-day volatility in S&P 500 options, essentially tracking how much investors will pay to protect against market swings. Readings above 20 signal heightened anxiety; readings above 40 often mark crisis points. On April 8, the VIX peaked at 52.33 after Trump's tariff announcement sent global markets into freefall. Thursday's spike stemmed from different concerns.

US job growth blew past expectations in September painting a rosy pre-shutdown picture and delivering the largest jobs gain in 5 months. Despite the data already being out of date, this will be the only major jobs release prior to the Fed's end of year meeting. Given the Fed minutes showed hesitancy within the ranks when it comes to a final interest rate cut in 2025, the strength of this jobs report will likely ensure nothing changes.

Mortgage rates are down despite the fed. I mean, Scott, you've got to work on this guy. He's got some real mental problems. There's something wrong with him. Be honest. I would love to fire his ass. He should be fired. Guy is grossly incompetent. And he should be sued for spending $4 billion to build a little building. I'm building a ballroom that's going to cost a tiny fraction of that and it's bigger than the whole thing put together.

The dollar index was stable on Wednesday, as investors awaited new catalysts that could shape the Federal Reserve's monetary policy trajectory. The FOMC minutes later today and Thursday's delayed nonfarm payrolls report are set to influence sentiment and shift expectations for the December Fed meeting. US Treasury yields reflected that uncertainty, with muted moves across the curve and the 10-year hovering near 4.12%.

A Fed official told Reuters that before resigning, Kugler asked Fed Chair Jerome Powell for a waiver to fix the disclosure issues and address investing rule violations tied to her spouse's trades including individual stock transactions and trades made around Fed policy meetings. The request was reportedly denied. As a result, Kugler missed a July 2025 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for personal reasons and, shortly after, resigned on Aug. 1.

A newly public financial disclosure filing has put a spotlight on the stock trades of one of the Federal Reserve's recently departed governors. Adriana Kugler - who stepped down from her post as the Fed's governor in August after being appointed in 2023 - filed a financial disclosure form that ethics officials declined to certify and referred to the central bank's inspector general's office for review.