#treasury-yields

#treasury-yields

The average American households' share of federal borrowings is now equal to half the median price of their homes, and the figure's rising fast. Right now, teachers, nurses, store owners and IT workers (i.e. average Americans) aren't paying any of the interest on those tens of trillions, since the federal government's simply ramping the IOUs to cover the carrying costs. But that can't go on forever.

The kicker for Wednesday was that various media outlets reported that Blue Owl Capital ( NYSE: OWL) may not fund the $10 billion data center for OpenAI, which in turn hammered Oracle Corporation ( NYSE: ORCL). Blue Owl had been in talks with Oracle about funding a 1-gigawatt facility for Michigan, but the spiraling increase in debt was reported to have turned the tables, at least for now. That led to steep losses across the major indices, with the Nasdaq taking the biggest hit, closing down 1.81% at 22,693.

Futures are trading higher on Wednesday as we reach the midpoint of the last full trading week of the year. Sellers once again took their toll on two of the major indices, while the Nasdaq squeaked out a minimal gain after being down around the noon hour. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 0.62% at 48,114, while the S&P 500 was last down 0.44% at 6800. The Nasdaq pulled out a small win for the Bulls, finishing the session at 23,111, up 0.23%.

Futures are trading higher on Monday as we head into the final trading weeks of 2025. All of the major indices were hit hard on Friday as investors began a big rotation last week out of the AI stocks that have led the market higher since ChatGPT was introduced over three years ago. The miss by Oracle Corporation ( NYSE: ORCL) seems like the final straw for many, as the Magnificent 7 have started to wobble in 2025,

The dollar index held steady on Tuesday, as markets awaited confirmation that the US government shutdown could soon end.

One scenario is that growth continues more or less as it has for the last 20 years. If so, the current federal fiscal trajectory is unsustainable,

Consumer spending, while solid, is slowing, as tariffs are being imposed worldwide. The United States is finally responding to tariffs imposed upon it, and a host of additional factors are fanning the flames of another 2025 correction. Job gains have plummeted, as much of the data is perceived to be inaccurate. To be frank, it is high time that a correction similar to the one earlier this year comes in to help cleanse the market of the recklessness ignited by artificial intelligence almost three years ago.

While the Fed doesn't directly set mortgage rates, APRs will typically move in the direction that lenders expect the federal funds rate to follow. Mortgage rates dropped last week as lenders were confident that the Federal Reserve would vote to lower the federal funds rate. In fact, the average 30-year APR dipped to just above 6% on September 16, the day before the decision was announced - a level it hasn't reached in nearly a year.