#us-dollar

#us-dollar

It pushed the US dollar index to a four-year low and continues to drive gold and silver to fresh record highs this morning. Trade and geopolitical uncertainty, tied to an increasingly unreliable American friend and ally, as well as growing concerns about what will happen to the Federal Reserve's credibility once Jerome Powell leaves office (it will fly out of the window), continue to weigh on the US dollar.

Perhaps we should not have been surprised.In what now looks like a well-worn negotiating tactic, President Trump yesterday did a complete 180-degree U-turn from his previous threats and said he would not use military force to invade Greenland, would not impose tariffs on European countries resisting a U.S. takeover of Danish territory, and would accept "additional discussions" instead.The markets breathed a big sigh of relief.

The US dollar weakened at the open on Monday, pulling back from multi-week highs and underperforming against other major currencies. The move followed renewed geopolitical and trade tensions after President Donald Trump threatened several European countries with new tariffs in an effort to gain control over Greenland. Germany, the United Kingdom, France, Denmark, Norway, Sweden, the Netherlands and Finland were identified as potential targets, facing a proposed 10% tariff from February 1, which could rise to 25% in June unless an agreement is reached.

The US dollar remained in a consolidation phase on Thursday, holding close to multi-week highs. Inflation data released on Wednesday painted a broadly stable picture. Producer prices increased moderately on the month. Taken together with earlier CPI data, inflation trends appear neither re-accelerating nor cooling decisively. Retail sales provided a contrasting signal, rebounding strongly in November. Improved consumer spending, suggesting household demand remains relatively healthy, limiting immediate downside risks to growth.

The dollar is poised for its sharpest annual retreat in eight years and investors say more declines are coming if the next Federal Reserve chief opts for deeper interest-rate cuts as expected. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index has fallen about 8% this year so far. After tumbling in the wake of Donald Trump's "Liberation Day" tariffs in April, the greenback came under sustained pressure as the president kicked off his aggressive campaign to get a dovish appointee installed as Fed chair next year.

The dollar could remain under pressure, as it hovers near multi-week lows, and could extend last week's losses, as markets continue to expect additional interest rate cuts. The latter could continue to weigh on the greenback and US treasury yields. Attention now turns to a dense macro calendar that could define market direction in the weeks ahead. Tuesday's release of delayed nonfarm payrolls data for October and November will be closely scrutinised for confirmation of labour market cooling.

The US dollar was relatively flat today, stabilizing after a second week of declines. Weaker US labour data reinforced expectations of a Fed cut next week. Yesterday's ADP report showed a surprise 32,000 drop in private-sector jobs, signalling that the job market is losing steam and fuelling concerns about the economy. Markets are still pricing close to an 87% probability of a 25 bps rate cut at the December FOMC meeting, in addition to more cuts during 2026.

A simple strategy of borrowing in low-yielding currencies like the Japanese yen or the Swiss franc and putting your money in dollars looks set to beat the implied returns on markets such as European stocks and Chinese government bonds once the volatility of these assets is taken into account, according to Bloomberg calculations. That suggests the dollar will maintain its critical position in global portfolios, despite worries about its future this year as President Donald Trump shook up the global economic order.

The dollar index held steady on Tuesday, as markets awaited confirmation that the US government shutdown could soon end.

The dollar traded within a narrow range on Tuesday as investors adopted a cautious stance ahead of a high-stakes week featuring key central bank decisions and pivotal trade developments. US Treasury yields eased slightly, with the 10-year remaining below 4%. On the monetary front, the Federal Reserve is widely expected to deliver a 25-basis-point rate cut on Wednesday. At the same time, both the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan are projected to keep rates unchanged, which could weigh on the dollar.

The dollar index rose on Wednesday, as weakness in the euro and yen overshadowed concerns about the US government shutdown. The prolonged impasse continues to delay key data releases and cloud the policy outlook, but investors appear more focused on political turmoil in France and uncertainty in Japan. In Tokyo, Sanae Takaichi's unexpected leadership win raised expectations of stimulus-friendly policies that could weigh further on the yen.

The US dollar traded within a narrow range on Monday, hovering near multi-month lows, and stabilizing after a decline as last week's weak payrolls data intensified expectations of policy easing. The greenback posted losses on Friday when nonfarm payrolls showed that only 22,000 jobs were created in August, and the unemployment rate climbed to 4.3%. The figures cemented the view that the labour market is losing steam, leaving the dollar vulnerable ahead of this week's upcoming data.

The US dollar steadied on Thursday, as traders weighed signals of a softer labour market and awaited further releases. Job openings fell to a low in July, undershooting expectations, while factory orders dropped for a second consecutive month. These indicators reinforced the view that the economy is cooling, even as attention now shifts to today's ISM Services index, expected at 51, and to Friday's payrolls.

The US dollar was resilient on Tuesday, with traders cautious ahead of a heavy macroeconomic calendar. The currency's resilience came as US markets reopen after the holiday, leaving attention on the ISM Manufacturing index due later today. Consensus points to a modest improvement to 49, which would nonetheless mark a sixth straight month below the 50 expansion threshold. Any upside surprise could reinforce the dollar by signalling economic resilience, while weaker data may add to pressure from mounting rate-cut expectations.