#us-dollar

#us-dollar

The expectations of a decrease in tensions triggered a pullback in oil prices, which in turn softened immediate concerns about inflation pressures. However, the broader geopolitical backdrop remains fragile, and any renewed escalation could quickly push oil prices, the dollar, and Treasury yields higher again.

However, the index could continue to see some downside risks after Friday's softer-than-expected inflation report reinforced the disinflation narrative and strengthened expectations for additional easing later this year. Forecasts now point to three rate cuts this year instead of two before the inflation data release. Momentum in the index will see Dollar pairs break through key levels of support and resistance, injecting life into trends.

The US dollar traded in a consolidation phase on Wednesday, as a partial government shutdown continues to delay key economic releases and keeps investors in a wait-and-see mode. With job data postponed, markets are temporarily deprived of fresh evidence on the health of the US labour market, limiting directional moves in the market. Markets could react to new data, including the ISM Services PMI figures release later today.

For decades, the United States stock market has been a juggernaut on the international stage. The US dollar has been - and still is - the de facto currency globally. But for how much longer that will be the case is now looking uncertain. As the New York Times reports, investors are starting to look elsewhere as the Trump administration continues to threaten the independence of its central bank, start a trade war with Europe, and implement self-conflicting monetary policies.

The resilience of gold above $4,800 per ounce at this stage reflects a delicate and complex balance between traditional supporting factors and emerging pressures-one that cannot be superficially interpreted or reduced to the movement of the dollar alone. It is true that the U.S. dollar's retreat from its recent peaks, after failing to sustain its recovery momentum from a four-year low, provided gold with a short-term breather and attracted some buyers.

London's blue-chip index finished up 118.02 points, or 1.15 per cent, at 10,341.56, reversing an early European sell-off and setting a new closing peak. Traders bet that the dollar's recent rally would boost earnings prospects for UK-listed multinationals, around three-quarters of which generate revenues in dollars. The session was marked by heavy volatility across asset classes: Gold prices fell a further 1.9 per cent to $4,648.76 an ounce, their lowest closing level since mid-January and more than 13 per cent below last week's record high.

It pushed the US dollar index to a four-year low and continues to drive gold and silver to fresh record highs this morning. Trade and geopolitical uncertainty, tied to an increasingly unreliable American friend and ally, as well as growing concerns about what will happen to the Federal Reserve's credibility once Jerome Powell leaves office (it will fly out of the window), continue to weigh on the US dollar.

The bitcoin price rallied sharply into the close on Tuesday, surging above $89,400 after trading as low as $87,100 earlier in the day, according to Bitcoin Magazine Pro data, as markets reacted to fresh remarks from President Donald Trump on the U.S. economy. The late-day move came as Trump, speaking in Iowa, dismissed concerns over the weakening U.S. dollar, telling supporters he was "not concerned" about its decline and insisting the dollar was "doing great."

Perhaps we should not have been surprised.In what now looks like a well-worn negotiating tactic, President Trump yesterday did a complete 180-degree U-turn from his previous threats and said he would not use military force to invade Greenland, would not impose tariffs on European countries resisting a U.S. takeover of Danish territory, and would accept "additional discussions" instead.The markets breathed a big sigh of relief.

The US dollar weakened at the open on Monday, pulling back from multi-week highs and underperforming against other major currencies. The move followed renewed geopolitical and trade tensions after President Donald Trump threatened several European countries with new tariffs in an effort to gain control over Greenland. Germany, the United Kingdom, France, Denmark, Norway, Sweden, the Netherlands and Finland were identified as potential targets, facing a proposed 10% tariff from February 1, which could rise to 25% in June unless an agreement is reached.

The US dollar held steady on Friday after Thursday's advance. The stronger-than-expected labour market data supported the currency. The reports reinforced the scenario where the Federal Reserve holds its interest rates unchanged in the near future. Initial jobless claims fell by 9,000, reaching 198,000 claims and contradicting expectations for an increase to 215,000. Continuing claims also declined, extending a downward trend in place since October. Together, these figures suggest labour market conditions remain relatively firm, easing concerns about a rapid deterioration in employment momentum.

The US dollar remained in a consolidation phase on Thursday, holding close to multi-week highs. Inflation data released on Wednesday painted a broadly stable picture. Producer prices increased moderately on the month. Taken together with earlier CPI data, inflation trends appear neither re-accelerating nor cooling decisively. Retail sales provided a contrasting signal, rebounding strongly in November. Improved consumer spending, suggesting household demand remains relatively healthy, limiting immediate downside risks to growth.

The dollar is poised for its sharpest annual retreat in eight years and investors say more declines are coming if the next Federal Reserve chief opts for deeper interest-rate cuts as expected. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index has fallen about 8% this year so far. After tumbling in the wake of Donald Trump's "Liberation Day" tariffs in April, the greenback came under sustained pressure as the president kicked off his aggressive campaign to get a dovish appointee installed as Fed chair next year.

The US dollar edged lower on Tuesday ahead of the release of GDP data, as expectations of further monetary easing continued to weigh on both the currency and Treasury yields. The 10-year yield slipped back, erasing Monday's gains, reflecting renewed caution among investors. While markets broadly expect the Federal Reserve to keep rates unchanged at its January meeting, expectations for 2026 remain tilted toward two rate cuts, leaving the dollar vulnerable to downside surprises in macro data.

The dollar could remain under pressure, as it hovers near multi-week lows, and could extend last week's losses, as markets continue to expect additional interest rate cuts. The latter could continue to weigh on the greenback and US treasury yields. Attention now turns to a dense macro calendar that could define market direction in the weeks ahead. Tuesday's release of delayed nonfarm payrolls data for October and November will be closely scrutinised for confirmation of labour market cooling.

The US dollar was relatively flat today, stabilizing after a second week of declines. Weaker US labour data reinforced expectations of a Fed cut next week. Yesterday's ADP report showed a surprise 32,000 drop in private-sector jobs, signalling that the job market is losing steam and fuelling concerns about the economy. Markets are still pricing close to an 87% probability of a 25 bps rate cut at the December FOMC meeting, in addition to more cuts during 2026.