The think tank highlighted that the Bank of England may face a new inflationary "shock" from rising energy costs, which could complicate Chancellor Rachel Reeves's economic plans. Energy markets have become volatile since tensions escalated between the United States, Israel, and Iran. Iran has threatened to block the Strait of Hormuz, a vital global shipping route, while Qatar Energy has suspended liquefied natural gas production following reported attacks on its facilities.
In contrast, the medium-term growth outlook has seen a slight improvement, with forecasts for 2027 and 2028 both increased to 1.6%. This positive adjustment suggests a potential stabilisation in economic performance over the next few years, albeit still below historic averages.
The chipmaker delivered better-than-expected results and projected current-quarter revenue above consensus, citing continued robust spending by major technology firms on AI infrastructure. Management emphasised that generative AI represents a structural shift in computing demand and signalled that, despite supply constraints at TSMC, Nvidia was able to secure the components needed to meet demand.
A new research paper published by a trio of Federal Reserve economists suggests that the prediction market platform is a useful method for measuring macroeconomic expectations - and it may even be better than some traditional methods. "Our results suggest that Kalshi markets provide a high-frequency, continuously updated, distributionally rich benchmark that is valuable to both researchers and policymakers," the researchers wrote.
The markets are seeing green across the board amid a near Goldilocks scenario in the economy. The latest jobs report reveals that conditions are neither too not nor too cold, with 130,000 jobs added last month, surpassing economist's most bullish of estimates, while the unemployment rate edged lower to a surprising 4.3% from 4.4% month-over-month. What it means for the Fed and interest rates will depend largely on the latest inflation data, with the CPI due out at the end of the week.
Markets were also bruised as a planned €220bn tie-up between mining giants Glencore and Rio Tinto was shelved. The pair have had a long-running, on-off engagement that has seen them try to tie the knot before. "Many wondered whether it might be third time lucky when Rio Tinto and Glencore got back around the table to discuss a deal which would have created the world's biggest mining company - but today it emerged it was not to be,"
The resilience of gold above $4,800 per ounce at this stage reflects a delicate and complex balance between traditional supporting factors and emerging pressures-one that cannot be superficially interpreted or reduced to the movement of the dollar alone. It is true that the U.S. dollar's retreat from its recent peaks, after failing to sustain its recovery momentum from a four-year low, provided gold with a short-term breather and attracted some buyers.
Ray Dalio never misses an opportunity to cut to the chase. On Wednesday at Davos, speaking to Kamal Ahmed, Fortune's Executive Editorial Director for the UK and Europe, he had a blunt assessment of the landscape leaders and CEOs are facing at the moment. "What always scares me is the lack of realism," among leaders, he said as he reeled off the historic economic, climate, and political threats the world is grappling with. "Will law prevail? Everyone is having to deal with that question."
