"One of the key factors behind the peso's strength has been the perception of macroeconomic stability in Mexico, supported by inflation that has shown signs of moderation and by a still-restrictive monetary policy. This interest rate differential with respect to developed economies continues to be a significant attraction for capital flows, especially in a global environment where investors continue to prioritize risk-adjusted returns, wrote Antonio Di Giacomo, senior market analyst at XS.com, a digital asset broker, in a market note."
"According to the consensus of year-end surveys, the peso is expected to remain hovering near 19 pesos per dollar in 2026. The latest Reuters poll estimated that the currency will weaken 3.4% to 18.92 pesos per dollar over the next 12 months, after closing the year in the upper 17-peso range. Citi's expectations survey also adjusted its forecast, placing the average annual exchange rate at around 19 pesos per dollar."
The Mexican peso finished the year stronger, breaking the 18-per-dollar threshold against a weaker U.S. dollar. Market consensus expects the exchange rate to trade between 18 and 20 pesos per dollar into 2026, with a slight tendency to depreciate. Year-end polls project the peso near 19 pesos per dollar on average, with Reuters forecasting 18.92 and Citi around 19. Key supports include perceived macroeconomic stability, moderating inflation, and a still-restrictive monetary policy that preserves an interest rate differential attracting capital flows. Economic growth remains modest but avoided recession despite external uncertainty. Markets remain attentive to domestic and U.S. policy decisions.
Read at english.elpais.com
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