"If November's fickle rates are a sign of what's to come, mortgage rates will likely rise in December. Analysts went into this month with a growing sense that the Federal Reserve would vote to lower the federal funds rate at its Dec. 9-10 meeting. However, any cuts to mortgage rates related to this month's meeting will be relegated to the first week or so of December."
"Financial markets are always reacting to predictions about future shifts in monetary policy. While Fed Chair Jerome Powell has cautioned that no decisions are set in stone, central bankers like to telegraph their interpretations of economic conditions well ahead of scheduled meetings. When there's a sense of uniformity and consensus in these statements, lenders can set mortgage rate expectations with confidence."
Analysts entered the month expecting the Federal Reserve to vote to lower the federal funds rate at the Dec. 9-10 meeting, but any related mortgage-rate cuts will likely occur only in the first week of December. After the Fed meeting, lenders will set mortgage rate expectations for the remainder of the month based on forecasts extending into 2026. Persistent divisions among Fed policymakers increase uncertainty and could push mortgage rates higher. Public remarks from different central bankers can move markets sharply, as November examples showed both increases and decreases in average 30-year mortgage rates.
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