#labor-market

#labor-market

The challenging U.S. labor market is entering a new normal, according to Goldman Sachs economists David Mericle and Pierfrancesco Mei, who tackled the phenomenon of "jobless growth" in an October 13 note. It resonates with what Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell memorably described in September as a " low-hire, low-fire " labor market and the fact that, for some reason, "kids coming out of college and younger people, minorities, are having a hard time finding jobs."

The "low-hire, low-fire" US labor market is leaving millions on the outside looking in. It's not just recent college graduates who are struggling to find entry-level positions. Out-of-work mid-career employees are taking part-time jobs, and hiring has stalled in industries from professional services to manufacturing. More than a quarter of the jobless have been out of work more than a half-year - the highest share since the mid-2010s excluding the pandemic-era years.

How a universal severance package works Earlier in September, NBCUniversal notified its U.S. and U.K. employees that come 2026, they must return to the office four days a week - with the option to work remotely on Friday [3]. NBCUniversal employees who don't want to return to the office can take a flat-rate severance package of eight weeks' salary and three months' healthcare coverage.

Since the end of the pandemic, consumers have proved to be the backbone for the American economy-much to the surprise of some of Wall Street's biggest names. This underlying strength has pushed the U.S. stock market to record highs this year, with analysts pricing in continued growth of the S&P 500. But the ever-reliable consumer is beginning to look shaky, courtesy of an unpleasant mix of a stagnating jobs market and sticky inflation.

"We all see the data-it's just gotten tough for people entering the labor force to be hired," Powell said.

Consumers have taken notice of the many challenges facing the economy; weakening labor conditions, the inflationary impact of tariffs, changes to the tax code, and a reprioritization of fiscal policy are all among the catalysts defining the outlook,

As expected, inflation ticked slightly higher during August with rising housing, food and energy costs leading the way. Core inflation however remained stable, ensuring a rate cut in September is now a forgone conclusion. The Federal reserve having been in wait and see mode since December 2024 has been given the green light today to cut rates. Inflation has not seen large upside surprises from tariff turmoil and with recent revisions to jobs data showing almost 1 million fewer jobs than previously thought,

Most economists believe the Fed will cut rates at its meeting next week after recent data revealed a labor market that's been softening for longer than previously thought. While inflation also remains stubbornly above the U.S. central banks 2% target and is forecast to have risen again in August, Fed officials have increasingly expressed concern about a slowing U.S. job market.