Analysts were surprised by the increase of 147,000 nonfarm payroll jobs in June, significantly above expectations. Initial predictions suggested weak growth due to dismal private payroll data and political tweets. However, the unexpectedly high number was attributed to a seasonal bump in government jobs, especially in education, which overshadowed declines in private hiring. Despite the upbeat headline figure, analysts noted signs of slowing private demand for labor, indicating complexities in the job market beyond surface-level growth.
"Private demand for labor is slowing," Pantheon’s Samuel Tombs said in a note to clients after the official number came out. "The robust headline figure is entirely due to a massive 80K increase in state and local government payrolls, of which 64K are education jobs. ... This large boost probably will unwind."
Wall Street analysts underestimated June's U.S. jobs report due to weak growth expectations based on negative private payroll data and President Trump's social media activity.
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