#bank-of-england

#bank-of-england

Drivers will feel some short-term relief as petrol and diesel prices edge lower, and markets are reacting strongly to the pause. But oil remains elevated, and that continues to feed through the entire economy, into prices, business costs and investment decisions.

Markets remain fragile amid persistent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which have pushed oil prices higher and revived concerns about inflation in Europe. While interest rates are expected to remain unchanged, attention could turn to the ECB's forward guidance and assessment of energy-driven price risks.

Sterling fell by 0.5% against the dollar, dropping below $1.33, as the US currency strengthened due to a flight to safety. The dollar index increased by 0.3%.

Sanjay Raja, the chief UK economist at Deutsche Bank, stated, 'The UK's disinflation story is set for another twist. The good news is that the CPI is expected to fall in the coming months. The bad news? Higher energy prices appear likely to significantly raise the CPI during the summer, creating yet another spike in the inflation trajectory.'

The European Central Bank (ECB) held its key interest rates unchanged following the February meeting of the Governing Council, in line with Cebr projections. This marks the fifth consecutive hold, despite a below-target inflation reading of 1.7% in January, the lowest level since 2021. The decision to hold rates also comes despite a recent Euro rally against the dollar, which is expected to add disinflationary pressure through cheaper imports and weigh on growth by making the bloc's exports more expensive.

The resilience of gold above $4,800 per ounce at this stage reflects a delicate and complex balance between traditional supporting factors and emerging pressures-one that cannot be superficially interpreted or reduced to the movement of the dollar alone. It is true that the U.S. dollar's retreat from its recent peaks, after failing to sustain its recovery momentum from a four-year low, provided gold with a short-term breather and attracted some buyers.

With 2-year gilt yields hitting December highs due to a 40 per cent surge in UK gas prices and oil nearing $80, the Bank of England faces a significant inflationary shock. High-street banks are no longer competing on price but are instead protecting margins against rising swap rates.