Yes, it would have to be rates for some reason or other jumping up. I find that remarkably unlikely. I don't think that would happen. Price growth jumping to a point whereby affordability declines further? I don't see that happening either. So I think all in all, modest improvement across the board is one that is the most likely scenario.
Markets are operating in a fragmented geopolitical environment where security concerns increasingly shape trade, investment, and technology policy. Geopolitical tensions, supply chains disruptions, and intense competition in areas such as artificial intelligence are influencing where capital flows and how risks are priced. Although US growth remains relatively strong, it exists alongside ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, stubborn services inflation, and uneven global policy direction.
European markets have entered the final full week of 2025 on a largely tepid tone with many easing back ahead of a shortened week that looks likely to see lower volume and lower volatility. Coming off the back of a period that has seen a raft of big-ticket, market-moving events, traders are expecting things to calm down towards year-end. Today's notable release in Europe saw UK GDP confirmed at 0.1% for the third quarter. This lays the groundwork for tomorrow's US GDP release.
Global markets are nearing the year-end with striking contrasts across major asset classes, shaped by shifting rate expectations, geopolitical uncertainty, and uneven economic momentum. Nowhere was this divergence more evident than in the performance of commodities, oil, and global equities. Gold led with a gain of more than 60%, its strongest annual advance in over a decade, while silver outperformed even that, surging nearly 100% over the year. Both precious metals benefited from expectations of global monetary easing, persistent geopolitical tensions,
TSM's growth story in 2025 hinges on artificial intelligence (AI) demand, which has transformed the company from a steady foundry into an indispensable AI enabler. Second-quarter revenue hit $30.1 billion, a 44% year-over-year jump that exceeded analyst forecasts. This beat stemmed from robust orders for advanced nodes like 3-nanometer (nm) and 5nm, which power Nvidia's GPUs and Apple's latest processors. Advanced technologies, defined as 7nm and more advanced technologies, accounted for 74% of total wafer revenue.
When President Trump returned to the White House his intention was clear: Make America Great Again. But the United States's economic partners, and some of its rivals, are also benefitting from having the unorthodox showman back in the Oval Office. Investors are watching the U.S. stock market with both enthusiasm and trepidation: The S&P 500 is up 15% over the past year, Treasuries have remained relatively steady, and the Fed's monetary policy is expected to begin a downwards trajectory.
The recent Jackson Hole symposium played an important role, as Fed Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged rising risks to the labor market while leaving the door open to policy easing should economic data continue to weaken. This "cautiously dovish" message was interpreted by markets as a signal for a potential rate cut as early as September, providing strong momentum for U.S. equities.
"Hedge funds have had an emotionally turbulent ride in 2025, starting the year with soaring interest from big investors and optimism for the incoming Donald Trump administration. That optimism did not last long, however, as the President's tariff policies disrupted global trade and sent markets into a frenzy."
The feeble response from mainstream liberal parties is entirely dissonant with the gravity of the moment, creating an eerie calm amid the escalating chaos.
