In 2022, home sales faced a historic decline as mortgage rates increased to 7%. Improvements in the Housing Market Tracker are observed when rates drop below 6.64%. Based on recent data, purchase applications rose by 2% week-over-week and 18% year-over-year, achieving consistent positive data for 27 weeks. Comparatively, last year's data showed much more favorable week-to-week trends when rates fell toward 6%, contributing to significant sales growth. A key threshold for homebuilder confidence and sales appears to be when mortgage rates drop toward 6%.
We've experienced the most significant decline in home sales ever when mortgage rates soared from 3% to 7%. Weekly Housing Market Tracker data improves when rates move from 6.64% toward 6%.
Purchase application data increased by 2% week over week and 18% year over year. We've achieved 27 consecutive weeks of positive year-over-year data.
When mortgage rates fell toward 6% last year, the weekly purchase application data showed an 18-week trend with 12 positive weeks. This year has not seen similar growth.
In late 2022, when rates approached 6%, there were 12 consecutive weeks of positive data, resulting in almost 500,000 sales.
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