"The authors calculated that the tariff rate, as suggested by White House policy announcements, is roughly 27% as of September, which "far exceeds the scale of the true trade policy shock," they wrote. But the actual rate, which the authors compiled using government data on tariff revenues and imports, is 14% - a rate the authors said rose "far more slowly and modestly" and "did not experience a reversal or the volatility seen in the statutory rate.""
"Shipment lags: Imports are not subject to the higher tariff rates announced while they are in transit. Exemptions result in lower tariff rates for key goods like semiconductors and other electronics carved out by the Trump administration. The U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade agreement: Compliance with the agreement has skyrocketed, meaning that goods imported from Canada and Mexico largely do not face the high tariffs imposed by the administration."
The effective tariff rate paid by U.S. importers is about 14%, roughly half the 27% statutory rate suggested by policy announcements as of September. The actual rate rose more slowly and showed less volatility than the statutory rate. The gap reflects shipment lags, exemptions for key goods like semiconductors and electronics, increased compliance with the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement, and enforcement and evasion factors. A smaller actual trade-policy shock implies a proportionally smaller price impact on import prices. Tariffs tend to reduce inflation in the medium term because price effects are short-lived, but they inflict more persistent damage on economic output.
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