Timberline is the clear winner for open terrain with around 7-9 inches, while Mt. Bachelor picks up 4-5 inches but remains closed. Most Washington resorts look too warm or too dry for meaningful new snow.
The ongoing Sunday night into Monday storm across the central Andes keeps producing mainly upper-mountain snow through Monday before tapering out by Tuesday morning, April 21. A realistic near-term outcome is about 16-20 cm at Las Leñas, 9-11 cm at Valle Nevado, and lighter 5-8 cm amounts around El Colorado, La Parva, and Portillo.
Friday's snow event is expected to be modest, with most open resorts like Arapahoe Basin and Breckenridge receiving a couple of inches, while closed areas like Snowmass may see up to half a foot.
From Sunday afternoon through Tuesday night, the guidance lines up on a prolonged South Island storm cycle. Timing confidence is good, with snow pushing in Sunday afternoon and ramping hard Sunday night.
The ongoing storm is expected to add 13-16 cm at Banff Sunshine and around 4-5 cm at Lake Louise by Friday morning, with the deepest moisture focused on Alberta.
"We're always glad to welcome winter back, and this latest round of snow has ensured there are still great turns to be had as our spring season continues. Late season powder days are a bonus, and with the spring events and deals we have planned, it's not too late to get up here for some great skiing and riding!" - Mike Pierce, Marketing Director, Mt. Rose Ski Tahoe
The NWS Reno NV says to anticipate, Snow accumulations of 9 to 12 inches above 7000 feet. At lake level, 1 to 3 inches, with locally up to 6 inches. Wind gusts up to 35 mph at lake level, with gusts reaching up to 70 mph along the Sierra crest. Wave heights 1 to 3 feet on Lake Tahoe. Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the Tuesday morning and evening commutes, as well as the Wednesday morning commute.
SWE is the most important metric for all of our water resources. It's the metric that we deal with the most and the one that the entirety of the snow research and operations community is working to get right. So, seeing an increase in SWE like that, even if it's from mid-winter rain, is a great thing because that means we have more water stored in the snowpack moving forward.
Confidence is highest through Saturday because the individual models agree well on the timing of the Thursday storm and the following break. Southern California's mountains pick up a quick shot of snow on Thursday with strong winds, then dry out into the weekend. Beyond the weekend, the signal stays active, but model spread grows fast on storm timing, snow levels, and wind impacts, so expect meaningful swings from run to run.
Sun night (02/15) through Tue night (02/17) is the core punch, and many Sierra mountains can stack 20″-50″ in that window as snow levels crash. Expect a lighter start Sunday night, then snowfall rates ramp up hard Monday night into Tuesday with widespread coverage across Tahoe, the central Sierra, and down into Mammoth. Snow levels begin around 5,000 to 5,500 feet early, then fall into the 1,500 to 2,500-foot range by Tuesday and Tuesday night, which helps keep even lower terrain in play for all-snow.
Two waves drive the bulk of the snow, with a relatively higher snow level and denser snow early, followed by a colder surge that improves powder quality and brings the strongest winds. Expect long stretches of snowfall for the Sierra with only brief lulls, plus periods of wind-driven, low-visibility skiing on upper mountain. Southern California gets meaningful mountain snow as well, but snow levels are a bigger deal there and the best accumulation favors higher terrain.