"The midweek storm favors steady accumulations and generally denser snow early, with quality improving as colder air arrives Tuesday into Wednesday. A quieter stretch late week sets the stage for the holiday-weekend storm, where snow levels crash and snow quality improves sharply, especially Sunday night through Monday night. Confidence is high in the midweek reload, while the weekend storm has a strong signal with a wider spread on where the heaviest bands set up."
"Snow levels hover around 6,000-7,500 feet at the start, so the lowest bases near 6,200-6,600 feet can flirt with rain or mixed precipitation early, then colder air pushes snow levels down around 5,000-5,500 feet heading into Wednesday. Most Tahoe and central Sierra resorts end up with 5″-17″ of new snow, with the best totals toward higher terrain near Kirkwood and the central Sierra, while Mammoth tracks closer to 8″-13″."
"SLRs generally run 9-13:1 on the Tahoe crest and around Mammoth, so quality trends from dense-to-moderate early toward fair-to-good snow by Wednesday, and the central Sierra can start heavier with early ratios dipping into the 6-10:1 range. South winds increase into Tuesday with ridge gusts commonly 40-60 mph, which can make exposed lifts and ridgelines rough, and the AIFS runs lighter while the ICON and the GDPS are more aggressive, with the ECMWF and the GFS closer to the middle."
Two Sierra storms will affect the region, beginning with a Mon night (02/09)–Wed (02/11) reload and culminating in a colder Valentine's Day weekend storm that may persist into Tue (02/17). Snow levels start high then fall, turning most of the Sierra to snow by Tuesday night. Most Tahoe and central Sierra resorts should see 5–17 inches, with higher terrain near Kirkwood favored and Mammoth closer to 8–13 inches. SLRs generally run 9–13:1 on the Tahoe crest and around Mammoth, with central Sierra ratios dipping to 6–10:1 early. Ridge gusts of 40–60 mph will make exposed lifts rough, and model spread influences where the heaviest bands set up.
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