The best early accumulations should stay on the upper mountain, with dense snow where it is falling. The main wave is favored Wednesday into early Thursday, and that is where the model signal is most consistent for both timing and the western tilt of the snowfall.
The Canterbury region woke up to the coldest day of the year so far, with windchill making residents wonder if it's time to turn on the heating and bring out the winter bedding and heated blankets.
Timberline is the clear winner for open terrain with around 7-9 inches, while Mt. Bachelor picks up 4-5 inches but remains closed. Most Washington resorts look too warm or too dry for meaningful new snow.
The storm cycle will bring 8-17 inches of new snow to most open resorts in the PNW, with snow quality starting dense to moderate on Tuesday and improving as colder air arrives on Wednesday.
Avalanche forecaster Matthias Walcher explained that water is now penetrating deep into the snowpack, weakening long-standing weak layers that formed earlier in the winter. This process significantly increases the likelihood of spontaneous wet avalanches, particularly on steep west-, north-, and east-facing slopes between 2,200 and 2,500 meters.
California's ski season was largely dry and warm, with only 18% of average snowpack by April 1, marking the second-lowest on record. Despite some quality skiing opportunities around Christmas and early January, the overall season remained disappointing.
Winds this afternoon are expected to run west to northwest around 10 to 18 mph, with gusts climbing into the 30s. Peak gusts could reach roughly 35 to 40 mph, especially on exposed bridges, along the waterfronts and by the BQE.
The best refresh among open areas comes early Friday at Grand Targhee and Big Sky, with Jackson Hole adding a smaller topper, then the weekend through Monday trends dry with firm mornings and softer afternoon snow as temperatures climb.
