#employment-trends

#employment-trends

US nonfarm payrolls increased by 147,000 in June, matching the average monthly gain of the past year. Most gains occurred in health care and state government sectors, while federal employment continued a decline due to actions by the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE). The unemployment rate saw a slight decrease, falling 0.1 percentage points to 4.1%, remaining steady between 4.0% and 4.2% for over a year.

"This is not a sudden development -- it's an issue that's been building up for years," said Ivan Gekht, CEO of Gehtsoft, a custom-design software development firm.

The demand is real, but the hiring system is out of sync,

The Business Roundtable CEO Economic Outlook Index dropped by 15 points in the second quarter to 69, marking its lowest level since 2020 and well below its historic average of 83.

The federal government workers are, you know, they're hard working, a lot of them are highly skilled. But they're sitting doing government work that isn't much value.

From my vantage point, it's clear that the amount of full-time opportunities in design studios has dwindled over the last 2 or 3 years, with much more emphasis being put on freelance hires to give employers flexibility over their overheads during uncertain times.

The digital-media landscape has drastically changed, with websites heavily monetized, leading to instability in jobs as companies often hire and fire staff.

These NIC changes create a significant burden for growing businesses at exactly the wrong time. Employers have been preparing for these increased costs by slowing hiring.

The Federation of Small Businesses (FSB) reports that small business confidence has improved slightly to -40.7 points, up from -64.5 in late 2024, indicating ongoing financial struggles.