In June, US nonfarm payrolls rose by 147,000, aligning with the average monthly gain from the preceding year. Job growth concentrated in health care and state government sectors, while federal employment faced declines due to the Department of Government Efficiency's measures. The unemployment rate experienced a minor decline to 4.1%, staying within a range of 4.0% to 4.2% for over a year. Future tariffs are anticipated to negatively impact employment, pushing firms to reduce labor costs. This scenario may lead to two rate cuts by the Federal Reserve within the year.
US nonfarm payrolls increased by 147,000 in June, matching the average monthly gain of the past year. Most gains occurred in health care and state government sectors, while federal employment continued a decline due to actions by the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE). The unemployment rate saw a slight decrease, falling 0.1 percentage points to 4.1%, remaining steady between 4.0% and 4.2% for over a year.
Future tariffs are expected to negatively affect US employment, leading companies to cut labor costs to safeguard profit margins. This expected labor market loosening may trigger the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates two more times in the current year.
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