In April, U.S. nonfarm payroll employment rose by 177,000 while the unemployment rate remained at 4.2%. Key sectors like healthcare and transportation saw gains, but manufacturing jobs declined. Declining residential construction and rising jobless claims in New York and Maine prompt caution as the labor market approaches pivotal changes due to tariffs predicted for 2025. Mortgage rates under 7.25% offer some support to builders, but initial labor softness could signify more broader economic issues as the moving average trends are closely monitored for recession indicators.
Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 177,000 in April, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.2 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today.
This report shows a loss of manufacturing jobs, and although construction jobs increased, residential construction labor slightly declined.
Mortgage rates have remained below 7.25% this year, which has helped mitigate potential challenges.
We will face labor issues if the trend moves towards 323,000 in the four-week moving average, but since 2022, we have cautioned people not to go into recession camp until then.
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