#market-valuation

#market-valuation

The JPMorgan CEO called the three-year bull market run unmistakable, while warning that asset prices currently sit high and credit spreads are unusually tight, a rough combination that signals overconfidence. Like others issuing warnings, Mr. Dimon puts a big 6-month to 2-year window for a market correction, which he thinks could be as big as 30%, citing profligate government spending, geopolitical issues, and rising global militarization.

Markets often rally in anticipation of rate cuts but then decline when those cuts are implemented. J.P. Morgan's trading desk recently warned that despite stocks setting "more than 20 all-time highs this year," the Federal Reserve's next rate cut threatens to curb investor zeal through a potential sell-the-news drop. Sure enough, as soon as the Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points, the market promptly sold off for the next three days.

The market dropped almost 20% in April. It is now 34% above its 52-week high. There is no single reason to think it will stop rising, except that it is already rising. The market is expensive, based on S&P ratio yardsticks. However, strong earnings, particularly in the big tech sector, can offset this. Big tech rules the market value. Big tech earnings were super.

"Frankly, it is difficult to project the true potential of this new entity, but we know it is big." This reflects the widespread confusion surrounding the AOL Time Warner merger.

Black Rock Coffee Bar has confidentially filed for an initial public offering in New York, targeting a valuation exceeding $1 billion. This will mark the first IPO from a U.S. coffee company since 2022.

The tech arms race might polish earnings calls but risks creating a sentiment gap, as AI cannot replace the critical element of credibility in leadership.

Chime Financial, anticipated to debut on Nasdaq, reflects shifts in investor sentiment, with its current valuation at $11.6 billion being significantly lower than its 2021 peak.

AI's potential to revolutionize businesses is overshadowed by current revenue models heavily reliant on advertising, leading to undervalued stock prices for companies like Meta and Alphabet.

Nintendo's recent surge in market value, exceeding $100 billion, is largely attributed to the anticipated release of Switch 2 and Mario Kart World, enhancing its market capitalization.