#jobless-claims

#jobless-claims

Since late 2022, I have consistently argued that the Fed shifted its approach to maintaining a more restrictive policy throughout this cycle. I have emphasized that, regardless of fluctuations in labor data, the Fed will maintain its restrictive stance until jobless claims rise significantly. Specifically, a break in jobless claims would be indicated by the four-week moving average approaching 323,000.

Similarly, despite a slew of announced layoffs, the actual number of people filing for unemployment benefits - as revealed by states' releases of their weekly claims numbers - remains low for now. JPMorgan economists peg last week's initial claims at 229,000, up a bit from 220,000 the previous week but well within the low range that has prevailed all year.