"Similarly, despite a slew of announced layoffs, the actual number of people filing for unemployment benefits - as revealed by states' releases of their weekly claims numbers - remains low for now. JPMorgan economists peg last week's initial claims at 229,000, up a bit from 220,000 the previous week but well within the low range that has prevailed all year."
"Private-sector employment rose by 42,000 jobs in October, per data from payroll processor ADP, a rebound to positive territory after two months of contraction. Yes, but: The ADP numbers do not incorporate government employment - and there was likely a steep decline in federal government employment in October because of the Trump administration's "deferred resignation program" that kept paying them through Sept. 30. That means it would be unsurprising if overall nonfarm payrolls contracted, due to the one-time reduction in federal payrolls."
Data from private firms, Federal Reserve banks and state agencies show the October labor market remains largely stable but with emerging weaknesses. The Chicago Fed's unemployment estimate rose to 4.36% in October from an official 4.32% in August. Weekly initial claims are low, about 229,000 per JPMorgan estimates, while ADP reports private payrolls increased by 42,000 jobs. Federal payrolls likely fell sharply owing to a deferred-resignation program, which could shrink overall nonfarm payrolls. Job postings have dropped to four-year lows and posted wage growth slowed to 2.5%, below recent inflation.
Read at Axios
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