BlackRock CEO Larry Fink said high oil prices for a sustained period would trigger a 'steep and stark recession' - one that could wipe out nearly $50 billion in ad spend this year and another $44 billion the next.
The figures show the severe impact the Iran war is already having on the euro zone economy. But, like in the 1970s, stagflation could become a widespread global phenomenon characterised by high inflation, low growth, and high unemployment, heavily driven by oil price shocks.
By the numbers: Confidence dipped one point from the previous quarter, to 48, per the report from the Conference Board, a nonpartisan think tank and the Business Council, an association of CEOs. A number below 50 reflects more negative than positive responses. 64% of CEOs said that they are preparing for a mild economic slowdown with slightly increased inflation pressure - a one-two punch known as stagflation. Only 22% said they were preparing for a "balanced economy with trend growth and gradual reduction in inflation pressure."
After seeing a strong beat for GDP in June, surprisingly strong retail sales figures and upbeat survey data over the summer, optimists would be forgiven for thinking the UK economy was defying the doubters. That wasn't to be this month, the UK economy is firmly back in the slow lane. Stagflation remains the key challenge for policy makers. With anaemic growth and inflation running at 3.8%, the Bank of England may feel its hands are tied.
