"Even the possibility that a hostile power could choke traffic in Hormuz-by far the world's most vital energy and commodity artery-was considered to be absurd, largely because it hadn't happened before. When I would tell people our analysis shows that, in a military conflict with Iran, Hormuz would be shut for weeks, people looked at me like I was high on crack cocaine."
"With crude oil benchmarks hovering near $100 per barrel-up 70% since early January-prices may rise to all-time highs of $150 or greater by the end of March if the strait remains effectively closed with no clear end in sight. If anything, prices are still artificially lower than they should be."
"The world can't grow without 20% of its energy-not in the short term. People are just unwilling to come to grips with the idea that we're not going to get 20% of our energy back really fast."
The U.S.-Israeli war with Iran is creating widespread economic disruption beyond immediate fuel price shocks. The Strait of Hormuz, controlling 20% of global oil and liquefied natural gas supply, faces potential closure, threatening stagflation similar to the 1970s crisis. Energy experts warn crude oil could reach $150 per barrel by March if the strait remains blocked. Government and business leaders underestimated the conflict's scope and duration. The economic consequences extend across multiple sectors including groceries, employment schedules, stock markets, and interest rates. Current oil prices remain artificially low given the magnitude of potential energy supply loss.
Read at Fortune
Unable to calculate read time
Collection
[
|
...
]