#economic-forecast

#economic-forecast

"We posit that the ongoing loss of energy supply to [the] global economy is so large (larger than the shocks of the 1970s as a share of oil supply) that it simply must be solved, either militarily or diplomatically, and that through various potential channels this occurs by mid-late April."

Fears over the strength of the UK economy appear to have kept shoppers away from high streets on Black Friday, adding to growing evidence that consumer caution will weigh heavily on growth into 2026. Footfall across all shopping destinations fell by 2% on Friday and was 7.2% lower than the equivalent days last year, according to data from monitoring firm MRI Software. Only locations close to central London offices bucked the trend, seeing a slight lift as workers browsed stores during breaks

The shutdown could account for up to a $14 billion loss in real GDP, or the total value of goods and services produced by the economy and adjusted for inflation, which won't be recouped, the Congressional Budget Office said Wednesday. A government shutdown usually reduces real GDP temporarily, halting non-essential federal operations, delaying government payments, and cutting spending on services and salaries.

With America's workforce in a demographic crunch and historic changes in immigration policy under way, it is "quite possible that the next five years will see no growth in workers at all."

One major drag is Russia's exorbitantly high interest rate, currently 21%, which is choking off private investment. The auto industry and mechanical engineering sectors are particularly hard hit.

The cost of the state pension triple lock is forecast to be three times higher by the end of the decade than its original estimate, according to the government's official forecaster.

Chancellor Rachel Reeves has signalled that further tax rises may be necessary to address a £40 billion shortfall in public finances for the upcoming Budget.

The mortgage rate is the magic bullet, and we are just waiting and waiting as to when that could come down.

Mortgage rates will be influenced by Fed actions, with a prolonged period of low rates needing a labor market shift or a drop in the Fed Funds rate.

Shares of Walt Disney Company have seen a sharp decline of more than -16%, despite strong Q1 2025 earnings that surpassed analyst expectations with an EPS of $1.75.

"As always, we hope for the best but prepare the firm for a wide range of scenarios," Dimon said, underlining his concern about the direction of the US economy.