#economic-forecast

#economic-forecast

Bond market optimism following tariff discussions hints at lower mortgage rates.

Expectations of declining bond yields are creating positive momentum in housing demand.

Trump's election is influencing mortgage rate forecasts and increasing uncertainty in the housing market.

Housing market may revive with expected mortgage rate cuts and job growth, leading to increased home sales by 9% in 2025 and 13% in 2026.

Mortgage rates are largely driven by the 10-year Treasury yield, not directly by Fed rate cuts.

The job market remains strong, with significant nonfarm payroll growth.

Analysts predict the Fed's rate-cutting cycle is over due to robust economic activity.

No major drop in mortgage rates is expected in 2025.

The Fed's recent interest rate cut won't significantly lower mortgage rates for homebuyers. Long-term projections indicate rates may remain high through 2025.

Goldman Sachs now sees a 35% chance of recession, up from 20%, due to economic weakness tolerance and macroeconomic adjustments.

Germany's economy is set to shrink for a second consecutive year, highlighting significant economic troubles for the government.

The layoffs signify an impending recession in Washington, D.C., heavily dependent on its federal workforce.

Dimon warns of a 50% chance of US recession due to economic headwinds and trade tariffs.

The UK may enter a recession as GDP growth is expected to stall.

Britain's economy faces contraction as business confidence hits a two-year low following Chancellor Reeves's budget.

The Independent emphasizes the need for on-the-ground journalism, especially during critical socio-political moments.

The EY Item Club projects slower economic growth for the UK in 2025, impacting government fiscal plans.

UK GDP growth unexpectedly expanded by 0.5% in February, much higher than forecasts.

The UK economy experienced a slight growth in August, indicating potential recovery despite broader challenges.

Market instability is compounded by Trump's economic policies, which are seen as harmful.

The global economic situation requires careful negotiation without erratic policy changes.

ING's chief economist warns of economic risks from Trump’s return, specifically his protectionist policies impacting European stability.

Inflation rose to 2.6% in October, matching forecasts and influencing Federal Reserve's decision on interest rates.

Inflation has decreased to 2.1%, nearing pre-pandemic levels, yet core prices remain elevated, suggesting continued inflationary pressures.

Tri Pointe Homes anticipates a strong spring selling season driven by home demand, despite ongoing supply challenges in the housing market.

The Canadian real estate market is showing signs of recovery with significant sales increases and forecasts a rebound for 2025.

Fannie Mae predicts economic slowdown but slightly higher existing-home sales and mortgage origination in light of increased market uncertainty.

National home prices are expected to rise by an average of 3.5% in 2025, with Freddie Mac predicting only 0.6% growth.

Goldman Sachs predicts S&P 500 could reach 6,500, fueled by strong earnings but jeopardized by geopolitical tensions and inflation risks.

Investors favor blue-chip dividend stocks for stable income and total return potential.

The stock market has surged significantly, with predictions for continued growth despite concerns over valuation and potential downturns.

Investors are encouraged to consider less-correlated dividend stocks amid stock market volatility.

MCD, MDLZ, and CCI are highlighted as attractive options for passive income investors.

The Government is projected to miss housing targets for the next three years due to declining construction activity.

The Spring Statement is not a Budget; it primarily serves as a forecast, indicating limited economic maneuvering.

Ireland's housing completion targets are likely to be missed in the next three years due to significant declines in construction activity.

Consumer spending significantly contributed to U.S. economic growth in late 2024.

Trump's administration could significantly affect California's economy through increased tariffs and immigration crackdowns.

Global sales of personal luxury goods are expected to shrink in 2025, potentially impacted by tariffs and global economic challenges.

Germany's growth forecast for 2025 has been slashed to zero due to US trade policy uncertainty, though public spending plans could help.

Germany's economic growth forecast for 2025 has been drastically revised down to 0.3% due to political instability and trade risks.

The Federal Reserve surprised markets with a 50 bps interest rate cut, but remains behind optimal rate targets.

US GDP grew at 2.8%, slightly below expectations, indicating healthy growth despite challenges.

US labour market report adds uncertainty to Fed rate cut expectations, keeping markets on edge with a stronger inclination towards easing than likely to be delivered.