The cost of the state pension triple lock is predicted to reach £15.5 billion by 2030, significantly exceeding initial estimates. The triple lock's mechanism ensures that annual pension increases align with inflation, wage growth, or 2.5%, driving its financial impact. The UK's public finances face vulnerabilities due to recent government reversals on welfare and spending cuts, contributing to rising debt. Overall, spending on the state pension continues to grow due to demographic changes and the operational structure of the triple lock, outpacing previous financial expectations.
The cost of the state pension triple lock is forecast to be three times higher by the end of the decade than its original estimate, according to the government's official forecaster.
The triple lock, which came into force in 2011, means that the state pension rises each year in line with either inflation, wage increases or 2.5% - whichever is highest.
The UK's public finances were in a "relatively vulnerable position" owing to pressure from recent government U-turns on planned spending cuts.
Spending on the state pension has steadily risen due to the triple lock and a growing number of people above the state pension age increasing costs.
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