"The 2025 federal budget plots a path for the Canadian economy to emerge from the current crisis. But it also highlights just how deep a hole the economy is in right now and how small the margin for error is as Canada navigates the perils of a trade war. This budget must be generational in its ambition and serve to shape our economy and our nation's future,"
"The budget lays out various scenarios for economic growth over the next five years. The so-called upside scenario envisions a world in which U.S. tariffs are rolled back and global trade works its way back to normal. Under the downside scenario, the Canadian economy would contract through the quarter running from April to June. Unemployment would peak around 7.4 per cent and Canadian growth would be weak for several years."
"Nominal GDP [would be] on average lower by $51 billion per year over the forecast horizon relative to the August 2025 survey forecast, the budget says. That scenario would see a further weakening of the Canadian economy and it's not far fetched. It is still entirely possible that next month's GDP numbers will show Canada slipped into a recession this summer and unemployment has been rising for months."
The 2025 federal budget outlines strategies to guide Canada's economy out of crisis while acknowledging severe current damage and limited margin for error amid trade war risks. Finance Minister Francois-Philippe Champagne calls for generational ambition and immediate, bold action. Forecasts include upside and downside scenarios: upside assumes U.S. tariff rollbacks and normalization of global trade; downside projects contraction April–June, unemployment peaking near 7.4% and weaker growth for years. Nominal GDP could average $51 billion per year lower under the downside path. Near-term data could show a recession and rising unemployment.
Read at www.cbc.ca
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