"The 2025 forecast from the National Retail Federation on Thursday estimates that shoppers will collectively spend between $1.01 trillion and $1.02 trillion in November and December, an increase of 3.7% to 4.2% compared with last year. Retailers rung up $976 billion in holiday sales last year, the group said. "We're seeing really positive behavior and engagement from consumers," NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay told reporters on a call Thursday. "In fairness, that's been somewhat of a surprise.""
"But Shay said more Americans are growing selective and they're focused on discounts. And while spending is expected to be up again, the growth of that spending may be in decline. That is still greater than the average increase of 3.6% between 2010 to 2019. Americans ramped up spending after that during the coronavirus pandemic. Holiday season sales rose 8.9% in 2020 and soared 12.5% in 2021, according to the NRF."
"NRF's calculation excludes automobile dealers, gasoline stations and restaurants to focus on core retail. Holiday spending accounts for 19% of annual sales for the retail industry, though for some retailers the number is a lot higher, according to the NRF. And consumer spending in the U.S. is monitored closely because it drives about 70% of the nation's gross domestic product."
The National Retail Federation forecasts U.S. holiday retail sales of $1.01 trillion to $1.02 trillion for November and December, a 3.7% to 4.2% increase from last year’s $976 billion. Consumers show positive engagement but are increasingly selective and focused on discounts, so spending growth may be slowing despite remaining above the 2010–2019 average. The forecast uses economic modeling with indicators including consumer spending, disposable personal income, employment, wages, inflation and prior retail sales, excluding automobile dealers, gasoline stations and restaurants to focus on core retail. Forecasting faces challenges amid the longest U.S. government shutdown and missing recent economic data.
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