#xrp

#xrp

According to the latest data from market intelligence firm Santiment, the average XRP investor is currently weathering a significant storm. Wallets active on the XRP Ledger over the past year are seeing average returns plummet to minus 41%. This decline has pushed the market value to realized value (MVRV) ratio into an undervaluation zone, suggesting that most holders are currently in the red.

XRP's daily Bollinger Bands have contracted to their narrowest spread in 2025, with the upper band sitting near $1.45 and the lower band around $1.33. The 20-day moving average sits at roughly $1.41, and XRP is trading right on top of it.

Inflation is the reason the Fed can't step in to help. The Fed's preferred gauge hit 3.1% year-over-year in January 2026 and is expected to hover near 2.9% through December—well above the 2% target.

Standard Chartered has cut its XRP ( ) price target from $8 to $2.80-a 65% reduction that marks the largest percentage cut among the bank's crypto forecasts. Geoffrey Kendrick, the bank's global head of digital assets research, had fueled bullish sentiment with an $8 XRP price prediction since mid-2025, but he's now warning of more pain ahead. The revision follows XRP's roughest stretch since 2022.

XRP exchange balances tracked by Glassnode have dropped sharply, falling from 3.76 billion tokens in October 2025 to around 1.7 billion by February 2026. That represents roughly 55% reduction in four months. Coins are moving off exchanges at scale, and when liquid supply shrinks this much, there's less inventory available for panic selling. Still, a drop this size on tracked exchanges suggests long-term holders are accumulating-an XRP bottom formation signal worth watching.

XRP ( CRYPTO: XRP) is trading at $1.4731 on Monday, up 2.6% from where it traded a week ago. Overall, the token trades 19.6% below its January 1 price and 59% from where it traded during July. Looking across the broader crypto space, Bitcoin ( CYPTO: BTC) is trading at $68,674 after declining 2.3% for the week, while Ethereum fell 6.5% to $1,967.

Japan's new tax reform could be the catalyst that pushes XRP ( ) toward its next rally. By slashing crypto taxes from 55% to 20% and reclassifying digital assets under the same framework as stocks, Tokyo has made holding and trading XRP dramatically more attractive to institutions, exchanges, and corporate treasuries. But the gap between catalyst and breakout is real. XRP trades near $1.40, down 60% from its July 2025 high of $3.65-reaching $4 requires a 185% rally.

XRP (CRYPTO: XRP) price forecasts usually swing between hype and fear, but the 21Shares report from late January took a different approach. Instead of picking a single target, the firm assigned probabilities to three scenarios, giving XRP a 30% chance of reaching $2.69, a 50% chance of hitting $2.45 and a 20% chance of falling to $1.60. The prediction followed the framework institutions actually model for risk management.

XRP ( ) has had quite the journey. Originally designed as an international payment engine, it spent years stuck in legal limbo while Bitcoin and Ethereum ran laps around it. Now that the regulatory dust has settled, XRP finds itself at a crossroads. The token trades around $1.95 as of mid-January 2026, sitting roughly 49% below its all-time high of $3.84 from January 2018 and 44% below its July 2025 cycle peak of $3.65.

XRP ETF inflows in 2026 reflect a striking shift in institutional behavior. Cumulative capital has crossed $1.37 billion by early January, making XRP ( ) the second-fastest crypto ETF to reach over $1 billion after Bitcoin. The products went 35 consecutive trading days without a single redemption-a consistency that Bitcoin and Ethereum funds couldn't match during the same period. For institutional allocators, these flows aren't speculative trades.

The former Ripple CTO couldn't resist poking fun at the coincidence. "It's because I retired," he joked on X . "Next I'll try cutting my hair." The quip landed perfectly. Schwartz had just transitioned to CTO Emeritus after 13 years leading Ripple's technology organization. But while the "Schwartz Effect" made for good memes, the real drivers behind XRP's rally run deeper: record ETF inflows, post-SEC clarity, and improving risk appetite across crypto markets.

XRP ( ), more sensitive to these flows than Bitcoin or Ethereum, fell sharply as leveraged positions unwound. With economists projecting rates could hit 1.0% by September 2026, the macro pressure looks set to persist. Each incremental hike tightens the funding conditions that made crypto speculation cheap. But Japan simultaneously approved crypto tax reform that could override the entire carry trade narrative-slashing rates from 55% to a flat 20% and opening institutional floodgates.