"XRP (CRYPTO: XRP) price forecasts usually swing between hype and fear, but the 21Shares report from late January took a different approach. Instead of picking a single target, the firm assigned probabilities to three scenarios, giving XRP a 30% chance of reaching $2.69, a 50% chance of hitting $2.45 and a 20% chance of falling to $1.60. The prediction followed the framework institutions actually model for risk management."
"But there's just one problem: XRP's price has since crashed 25% to below $1.50, dropping below even 21Shares' bear case target. The report was written when XRP traded at $2.00, and that market no longer exists. Understanding what changed - and whether the probability framework still holds - is vital to determine the path forward for the XRP price. What 21Shares Actually Predicted for XRP 21Shares released its XRP outlook for 2026 on January 23 , assigning three probability-weighted scenarios:"
21Shares produced a probability-weighted outlook for XRP with three scenarios: a 30% bull case at $2.69, a 50% base at $2.45, and a 20% bear at $1.60. The firm modeled institutional adoption, ETF inflows, RLUSD usage, settlement activity, and regulatory stability to form those paths. XRP traded near $2.00 when the outlook was published. XRP subsequently plunged roughly 25% to below $1.50 in about two weeks, breaching all support levels and falling under the bear-case projection. Reassessing assumptions about adoption, ETF flows, and on-chain activity is necessary to gauge future price trajectories.
Read at 24/7 Wall St.
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