#us-labor-market

#us-labor-market

The US dollar index was relatively volatile on Monday amid renewed concerns about the geopolitical situation in the Middle East. Markets remained focused on the lack of progress in negotiations between Washington and Tehran, after President Donald Trump rejected Iran's latest proposal. The diplomatic deadlock has kept concerns over energy supply disruptions elevated, supporting higher oil prices and reinforcing inflation expectations. This pushed Treasury yields higher across maturities, underpinning the dollar.

Economists expect the US added 55,000 jobs and the unemployment rate held steady at at a fairly low 4.3%. Last month's report showed a surprisingly strong job gain in January, but revisions to last year's data meant 2025 as a whole saw the weakest growth outside a recession in over 20 years.

Layoff announcements this year top 1.1 million, the most since 2020 when the pandemic hit, according to the Challenger jobs report, which has taken on a bit more significance lately due to the patchy official labour market data in the wake of the US government shutdown. The firm said layoff plans hit 71,321 in November, a down from the huge (22yr high for the month) cuts announced in October...the 1.17mn total is 54% higher than the same 11-month period a year ago

It's not like there's going to be a recession ... right?

Donald Trump returned to the White House promising to boost job creation. So far this hasn't happened: the labor market is weakening and, for the first time since the Covid pandemic, is beginning to show negative job growth. According to indicators released on Friday, 22,000 non-farming jobs were added in August, far lower than the 76,000 new positions economists had been expecting to see.