"For example, the number of people employed part-time involuntarily was 5.5 million in November, an increase of 909,000 on the month prior. These individuals, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) explained, would have preferred full-time employment but are working part-time because their hours were reduced or they were unable to find full-time jobs. Elsewhere, the unemployment rate among teenagers was up month-on-month to 16.3%, while the number of people jobless for less than five weeks was 2.5 million in November, up by 316,000 from September."
"As such, the data "raised several red flags" said UBS's Paul Donovan in a note to clients this morning. He added that the quality of the data itself must be taken with a pinch of salt, because the government shutdown compounded the issue of lower response rates to BLS surveys. But "the report does not raise too many concerns about the resilience of the U.S. consumer," he added. "Employment in restaurants continues to grow, suggesting the trend to spending on having fun continues.""
Nonfarm payroll employment increased by 64,000 in November, broadly unchanged from April levels. The unemployment rate climbed to 4.6% after steady increases late in the year. Involuntary part-time employment reached 5.5 million in November, rising 909,000 from the prior month as workers sought full-time hours. Teen unemployment rose to 16.3%, and short-term unemployed (less than five weeks) totaled 2.5 million, up 316,000 since September. Federal government employment declined by 162,000 in October. BLS survey response rates were depressed by the government shutdown, affecting data quality. Restaurant hiring remains a bright spot and supports consumer leisure spending, leaving scope for potential Fed rate cuts early next year.
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