"Bank of America Research's "Situation Room" note warned in mid-December that markets are priced for a robust 2026 even as hiring stalls and unemployment rises and recalled a now 25-year-old cult classic stoner comedy starring Ashton Kutcher and Seann William Scott to make its point. The entry-level worker would be forgiven, in other words, for feeling about the job search the way Kutcher and Scott feel about their stolen wheels."
"Seliger and Lee flagged what it called the weakest U.S. job market since at least 2011 (with the notable exception of the mass layoff wave from Covid), with monthly payrolls averaging just 17,000 over the past six months-by far the slowest pace of job creation since the global financial crisis. Private payrolls are only modestly stronger at 44,000 on a six‑month average basis, still at their weakest level in well over a decade,"
U.S. payroll growth has slowed dramatically, averaging just 17,000 monthly over the past six months, the weakest pace since the global financial crisis. Private payrolls averaged about 44,000 on a six-month basis, and broader U‑6 underemployment rose to 8.7% while job openings per unemployed worker fell to 1.0. Credit spreads sit near cyclical tights and equities trade near record highs, reflecting investor bets on a strong 2026 expansion. That disparity raises risk because a genuinely strong U.S. economy is unlikely to coexist with nearly absent job growth, making a slower labor recovery a key downside risk for 2026.
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