"Without official Bureau of Labor Statistics data to calm their nerves, analysts are wondering just how fast the U.S. employment market may have deteriorated. While available data from private and alternative sources suggest that the jobs market hasn't significantly weakened, economists are concerned that unemployment remains a key risk to the economy in 2026. For now, ignorance is bliss for the markets."
"Nonetheless, RSM chief economist Joe Brusuelas wrote in a note to clients Friday that "the labor hoarding that has characterized the American jobs market over the past few years has ended." During COVID, Fortune reported that skilled individuals in buzzy sectors like tech and AI were being 'talent-penned' to prevent them from being scooped up by rivals. As the AI skills landscape has become clearer, this safety net appears to be unravelling."
Official Bureau of Labor Statistics data are missing, creating uncertainty about the pace of U.S. labor-market deterioration. Private and alternative indicators show little immediate weakening, yet economists warn unemployment remains a material risk in 2026. Market sentiment rallied after a government shutdown ended and a potential U.S.-India deal, lifting U.S., European and Asian equities while lowering volatility expectations. Investors remain confident despite labor-market concerns. RSM's Joe Brusuelas says labor hoarding has ended, and firms investing in productivity-enhancing technologies, especially larger businesses, are poised to reduce headcount as efficiency becomes a priority.
Read at Fortune
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