The economists who make these calls would eventually conclude that there was a short recession in 2001, but it was a curious kind of recession - and at best a borderline call. GDP never fell for two consecutive quarters. GDP was narrowly up (0.2%) in 2001 and returned to solid growth in 2002. The GDP slump was caused by a collapse in investment in telecommunications equipment.
What is the current shutdown's expected economic impact? The CBO estimate says the federal spending delay will produce short-term economic losses - largely in the fourth quarter of 2025 - that will mostly be recouped during the first quarter of 2026, assuming the shutdown ends by then. CBO projected how much the shutdown would hamper U.S. economic growth per quarter, adjusted for inflation and multiplied by four, to convert a quarterly figure into an annual one.
Its GDP growth rate of almost 3% in 2024 put it ahead of the overall EU rate of 1%, as well as the bloc's two largest economies France and Germany. France recorded a rate of 1.2% while Germany suffered a -0.2% contraction. The signs for 2025 are also positive. Poland recorded growth of 0.8% in the second quarter, the fifth best rate in the EU.
Meanwhile, third-quarter growth is shaping up to be hotter. Durable goods orders for August jumped more than expected, according to data released on Thursday. And the personal income and spending report on Friday showed consumption remained healthy in August while also topping forecasts. Given that consumer spending represents over two-thirds of the U.S. economy, the gains more than offset weakness in housing, which remains buffeted by high home prices and mortgage rates.
Bessent criticized the weak jobs data released Friday, extending recent administration claims that the numbers aren't correct and haven't been collected properly. (Trump fired the commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics after the August report, and said without evidence that the BLS rigged the data against him.) "President Trump was elected for change, and we are going to push through with the economic policies that are going to set the economy right," Bessent said. "I believe by the fourth quarter we are going to see a substantial acceleration."
Researchers at Pantheon Macroeconomics found that AI-related spending accounted for a 0.5 percentage point difference in annualized GDP growth for the first half of the year.
Rising energy, labour, and supply costs, coupled with higher taxation, continue to erode margins for businesses in the night-time economy.
The S&P 500 is up 10% year-to-date, powered by the 'Magnificent Seven' tech giants whose foreign-heavy revenues are being boosted by the weaker dollar. Concentration in the top 10 stocks is at its highest since the 1960s, with earnings strength - 83% of companies beating estimates - driving sentiment.
Bret Baier mentioned the economic contraction concerns while discussing President Trump's claims about the new trade agreement with China, emphasizing its incompleteness.
