"The pattern was striking: Republican forecasters systematically predicted higher gross domestic product growth when their party controlled the presidency, representing roughly 10% to 15% of average growth rates during our study period. When we examined forecast accuracy using real-time GDP data, Republican forecasters made larger errors when their preferred party held office. This suggests partisan optimism makes their professional judgment worse."
"What makes this finding particularly notable is its asymmetry. The partisan gap emerged specifically during Republican presidencies. Under Democratic Presidents Bill Clinton, Barack Obama, and Joe Biden, Republican and Democratic forecasters made virtually identical predictions. That wasn't the case when George W. Bush, and later Donald Trump, occupied the White House. Interestingly, this bias appears only in GDP forecasts. When we analyzed predictions for inflation, unemployment, and interest rates, we found no systematic differences between Republican and Democratic forecasters."
Analyses of nearly 40 years of Wall Street Journal Economic Forecasting Survey responses reveal systematic partisan differences in GDP forecasts. Forecasters identified as Republican predicted higher GDP growth when a Republican occupied the presidency, amounting to roughly 10–15% of average growth rates in the sample. Real-time GDP comparisons show larger forecast errors by Republican-affiliated economists during Republican administrations, indicating partisan optimism reduced forecast accuracy. The partisan gap was asymmetric, appearing during Republican presidencies but not during Democratic presidencies. The bias was specific to GDP forecasts; inflation, unemployment, and interest-rate forecasts showed no systematic partisan differences.
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