#economic-forecasting

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MBA changes 2025 mortgage rates forecast

Mortgage rates are projected to be higher than previously expected, affecting housing market activity.
Updated forecasts from MBA and Fannie Mae reflect growing concerns over mortgage rates and home sales.
#interest-rates

The Wall Street economist who nailed the Fed's 'joyous' rate cut sees the same thing again

Michael Feroli predicts a future Federal Reserve rate cut of 50 basis points, emphasizing the need for proactive economic policy adjustments.

How Fed Rates Influence Mortgages, Credit Cards and More

The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain its benchmark interest rate until signs of slower inflation emerge. Jerome H. Powell's remarks will be crucial for future rate projections.

UK wage growth slows; global chip stocks fall amid growing tensions between US, China and Taiwan business live

Some economists predict Bank of England's rate cut in September due to cooling wage growth.

What Forecasters Say About Interest Rates (and Why They Disagree)

Financial markets shifted expectation from Fed lowering rates soon to possibly late in the year due to inflation data.

UK economy grew by 0.1% in third quarter of 2024, says ONS

UK economy's growth slowed to 0.1% in Q3, with high interest rates causing uncertainty.

I'm No Economist, But Boston Condos For Sale Ford Realty

The U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to cut its key interest rate in June based on the latest Reuters poll.
Economists believe that if Fed policymakers adjust rate projections in March, it will likely signal fewer cuts this year.

The Wall Street economist who nailed the Fed's 'joyous' rate cut sees the same thing again

Michael Feroli predicts a future Federal Reserve rate cut of 50 basis points, emphasizing the need for proactive economic policy adjustments.

How Fed Rates Influence Mortgages, Credit Cards and More

The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain its benchmark interest rate until signs of slower inflation emerge. Jerome H. Powell's remarks will be crucial for future rate projections.

UK wage growth slows; global chip stocks fall amid growing tensions between US, China and Taiwan business live

Some economists predict Bank of England's rate cut in September due to cooling wage growth.

What Forecasters Say About Interest Rates (and Why They Disagree)

Financial markets shifted expectation from Fed lowering rates soon to possibly late in the year due to inflation data.

UK economy grew by 0.1% in third quarter of 2024, says ONS

UK economy's growth slowed to 0.1% in Q3, with high interest rates causing uncertainty.

I'm No Economist, But Boston Condos For Sale Ford Realty

The U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to cut its key interest rate in June based on the latest Reuters poll.
Economists believe that if Fed policymakers adjust rate projections in March, it will likely signal fewer cuts this year.
moreinterest-rates
#inflation

Goldman Sachs's Jan Hatzius: Markets humble analysts by proving them wrong

Economic forecasters, like policymakers, were humbled by incorrect predictions over the past five years due to unprecedented events such as COVID-19.

Jobless rate set to rise' as experts warn of National Insurance hike impact

Increase in employers' national insurance contributions may lead to higher unemployment and reduced job creation.

Goldman Sachs's Jan Hatzius: Markets humble analysts by proving them wrong

Economic forecasters, like policymakers, were humbled by incorrect predictions over the past five years due to unprecedented events such as COVID-19.

Jobless rate set to rise' as experts warn of National Insurance hike impact

Increase in employers' national insurance contributions may lead to higher unemployment and reduced job creation.
moreinflation
#fiscal-policy

Treasury may have broken law by failing to reveal 9.5bn spend in Tory budget, MPs told

Treasury officials may have violated legal obligations by not informing lawmakers about unreported spending, impacting fiscal forecasts.
Transition to 'trust but verify' could prevent future oversight failures in fiscal management.

National debt forecast to treble over next 50 years

UK national debt is projected to treble in the next 50 years due to ageing population, climate change, and geopolitical tensions.

Rachel Reeves warned she could spook markets if she presses ahead with borrowing plan

Borrowing billions for infrastructure might destabilize markets, resembling past fiscal mishaps.
Market sentiment dictates borrowing capacity, not just governmental fiscal adjustments.

Treasury may have broken law by failing to reveal 9.5bn spend in Tory budget, MPs told

Treasury officials may have violated legal obligations by not informing lawmakers about unreported spending, impacting fiscal forecasts.
Transition to 'trust but verify' could prevent future oversight failures in fiscal management.

National debt forecast to treble over next 50 years

UK national debt is projected to treble in the next 50 years due to ageing population, climate change, and geopolitical tensions.

Rachel Reeves warned she could spook markets if she presses ahead with borrowing plan

Borrowing billions for infrastructure might destabilize markets, resembling past fiscal mishaps.
Market sentiment dictates borrowing capacity, not just governmental fiscal adjustments.
morefiscal-policy

'Superforecaster' says World War III is about to begin

Martin Armstrong predicts World War III may commence soon, leading to the US's collapse by 2032 based on insights from his AI system, Socrates.

Forecasters get more overconfident the further into the future they look

Forecasters are accurate in the short term but overconfident in long-term predictions.
#nouriel-roubini

Dr. Doom Feeling Positively Giddy

Nouriel Roubini, despite his 'Dr. Doom' reputation, has signaled resilience and growth in the US economy contrary to recession predictions.

'Dr. Doom' Nouriel Roubini is actually upbeat about the economy

Nouriel Roubini, known as 'Dr. Doom,' takes a more positive stance amid market panic, highlighting potential economic strength.

Dr. Doom Feeling Positively Giddy

Nouriel Roubini, despite his 'Dr. Doom' reputation, has signaled resilience and growth in the US economy contrary to recession predictions.

'Dr. Doom' Nouriel Roubini is actually upbeat about the economy

Nouriel Roubini, known as 'Dr. Doom,' takes a more positive stance amid market panic, highlighting potential economic strength.
morenouriel-roubini

Enough With the Economic Doomsaying

Economists' persistent forecasting failures reveal issues with the economics discipline's reliance on flawed modeling methods.

Wall Street is worrying about the 'Sahm Rule' that predicts recessions-but its creator is not, yet

Former Federal Reserve economist warns against premature recession forecasts based on the 'Sahm rule'.

Booming Covid-era tech stocks see $1.5tn market value loss

Many top pandemic-era companies are now experiencing significant market value losses.

Singapore's central bank says AI isn't ready for policy work

AI/ML techniques have helped policymakers identify financial anomalies, analyze large volumes of data, and generate inflation expectations from social media.
Generative AI models can create alternate scenarios, simulate economic models, and outperform human experts in forecasting inflation.
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